新冠肺炎非均匀感染力传播模型与干预分析  

A Transmission Model of COVID-19 with Heterogeneous Force of Infectiousness and Intervention Analysis

作　　者：汪剑眉[1] 李钢[1] WANG Jian-mei;LI Gang(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications Haidian Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学经济管理学院,北京海淀区100083

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2020年第3期392-398,共7页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(19BKS098)。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情在中国得到有效控制,为干预分析提供了实证研究基础。基于SIR扩展的非均匀感染力模型,以2020年1月20日−3月23日数据构建全国、湖北、武汉3层次分形子模型,应用吉布斯抽样和机器学习高斯过程回归获得参数估计,模拟差异化场景进行干预敏感度分析,模型在参数设置和精度优化方面有所突破。研究发现降低接触是有效抑制疫情的核心杠杆,其敏感度是其他杠杆的3.5倍以上。强弱场景边际效应不对称,反映了中国方案对帕累托最优的趋近。模拟分析评估了干预成效,为我国和全球其他国家后续判断疫情风险、掌控干预节奏、制定防控策略提供有益参考。The epidemic of COVID-19 has been effectively controlled in China,which provides an empirical basis for intervention analysis.An extended SIR transmission model with heterogeneous force of infectiousness is presented including three fractals sub-models of Wuhan,Hubei and China.The model is built upon the data from January 20 to March 23,2020.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)Gibbs sampling and machine learning of Gaussian process regression are applied to solve the parameters estimation and the sensitivity analysis is used in various scenarios.The model has a breakthrough in parameter setting and accuracy optimization.It is found that contact reduction is the most effective core lever to control the epidemic,with 3.5 times or more sensitivity as much as other levers.The asymmetric marginal effect in strong and weak scenarios proves that Chinese controlling strategy is close to the Pareto Optimality.The intervention effectiveness of COVID-19 in China is evaluated by simulation analysis.The result provides valuable reference for China and other countries to judge the epidemic risk,control the intervention pace,and formulate prevention strategies in the future.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 非均匀感染力 干预杠杆 敏感度分析 SIR 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]