2019年我国消费需求总体特征及2020年展望  

The Overall Characteristics of China's Consumer Demand in 2019and Expectations in 2020

作　　者：田青[1] 姜雪 TIAN Qing;JIANG Xue(School of Management Science and Engineering,DUFE,Dalian 116025)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2019年第11期1202-1211,共10页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究,负责人:陈磊;国家社科基金后期资助项目(编号:17FJY006):中国老年群体消费结构、需求特征和行为决策研究,负责人:田青。

摘　　要：2019年1~9月,我国社会消费品零售总额增速稳中放缓,其中农村消费品零售总额增速继续高于城镇,城乡消费差距逐渐减小;占消费份额较大的餐饮行业稳中略降,高端餐饮需求略有增加;汽车行业消费疲软,石油制品类商品消费总额基本稳定,增速下滑;受非洲猪瘟的影响,2019年1~9月生猪价格一路飙升,猪肉进口量达到历史新高;服务业发展势头持续向好,文化体育产业发展加快,旅游业消费需求平稳增长,网上零售总额增速加快。对于未来消费走势,本文认为新能源汽车将继续成为消费亮点,猪肉价格仍将维持高位;消费者预期指数、满意指数和信心指数数值均稳步上升,说明我国消费市场仍有潜力。在新中产带动的消费2.0时代,预计2019年4季度和2020年全年,我国消费需求总体仍将保持基本平稳,稳中微降。政府还需继续积极发展服务业,以服务业带动就业;深入推进农村网络扶贫,打通农村电商扶贫通道,提高贫困人口消费能力;重视老年消费,发展银发产业;同时全方位加强市场监管,控制物价水平,维护市场秩序。From January to Septermber 2019,the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in China slowed down steadily,among which the growth rate of total retail sales of rural consumer goods continued to be higher than that of urban areas,and the consumption gap between urban and rural areas gradually decreased;the catering industry,which accounts for a large share of consumption,declined slightly,and the demand for high-end catering increased slightly;the consumption of automobile industry was weak,and the total consumption of petroleum products was basically stable,and the growth rate declined;affcted by African swine fever,pig prices soar from January to September 2019,and pork imports reached a record high;the development momentum of service industry was strong,the development of culture and sports industry was accelerated,and the consumption demand of tourism industry grew steadily;the growth rate of total online retail sales was accelerated.For the future consumption trend,this paper believes that new energy vehicles will continue to be the highlight of consumption,and pork prices will continue to maintain a high level;consumer expectation index,satisfaction index and confidence index are rising steadily,indicating that China's consumer market still has potential.In the era of consumption 2.0 driven by the new middle class,it is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the whole year of 2020,China's overall consumption demand will remain basically stable,stability of slightly down.The government also needs to continue to actively develop the service industry to promote employment;further promote rural network poverty alleviation,open rural e-commerce poverty alleviation channels,and improve the consumption capacity of the poor;pay attention to the consumption of the elderly and develop the silver hair industry;at the same time,strengthen market supervision in an all-round way,control the price level,and maintain market order.

关 键 词：消费需求 总体特征 展望 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济]