基于模糊理想解相似排序技术法的综合管廊项目在政府和社会资本合作模式下风险评价管理分析  

Analysis of Risk Evaluation Management of Comprehensive Pipeline Corridor Project in PPP Mode

作　　者：张沛 王作文 ZHANG Pei;WANG Zuowen(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院,成都610500

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2020年第1期68-74,共7页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家自然基金纵向项目(51574201):基于数据融合技术的全线路灾害无线监测安全预警系统研究,负责人:孟庆成。

摘　　要：综合管廊建设项目属于市政综合基础设施建设项目,目前其主要问题是资金的问题,仅仅靠政府财政支持很难实现大规模建设,而PPP建设模式是近年来政府引入社会资本到社会公共基础设施建设中的新形式,PPP的引入为我国的社会基础设施建设发展提供了新机会。本文从投资者的角度出发,研究了PPP模式下综合管廊项目投资建设风.险的影响因子,并确定了23个关键性的风险指标,构建出风险评价指标体系。运用模糊TOPSIS方法模型分析调查问卷的数据,计算出风险评价体系中的各项指标权重,同时结合工程案例,对所构建的综合管廊项目在PPP模式下的风险评价指标体系进行实际运用,并提出了风险管理控制办法。该方法最终将定性与定量因素很好地结合起来,对综合管廊项目PPP模式下投资方案进行风险评价,评价结果具有工程实践性,能够帮助投资者有效地评判和规避风险。Comprehensive utility tunnel construction project belongs to the municipal comprehensive infrastructure construction project.At present,it's main problem is the issue of funds.It is difficult to achieve large-scale construction with govermment financial support alone.The PPP construction model is a new form of goverment's introduction of social capital into social public infrastructure construction in recent years.The introduction of PPP for our country's development of social infrastructure construction provides a new opportunity.Based on the perspective of investors,this paper studies the influencing factors of investment and construction risk of comprehensive pipeline corridor project in PPP mode,determines 23 key risk indexes and constructs the risk evaluation index system.The fuzzy TOPSIS method model is used to analyze the data of the questionnaire and calculate the weight of each index in the risk evaluation system.In the end,this method combines qualitative and quantitative factors well to evaluate the risk of the investment scheme in the PPP mode of the comprehensive pipeline corridor project.The evaluation results are practical and can help investors efectively evaluate and avoid risks.

关 键 词：模糊TOPSIS法 综合管廊 政府与社会资本合作 风险管理 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F299.24F224