改进峰值天然气产量预测模型在四川盆地的应用  

Apilication of improved gas peak prediction model in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：余果[1] 方一竹 刘超[2] 陈艳茹 Yu Guo;Fang Yizhu;Liu Chao;Chen Yanru(Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Engineering Technology Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院 [2]中国石油西南油气田公司工程技术研究院

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2020年第2期34-39,共6页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：为实现精准预测盆地、气区中长期产量,合理制定气区规划方案、实现高效管理和开发,以四川盆地为研究对象,通过总结峰值预测法研究现状及特点,选取单峰翁氏模型、单峰Weibull模型、多峰Gauss模型3种预测模型进行改进,用于盆地中长期天然气产量趋势研究,定量地进行全生命周期预测。研究结果表明:①四川盆地天然气产量在未来30年内将呈现快速增长趋势;②3种模型预测2030年的年产气量介于808×108 m3~876×108 m3,符合四川盆地天然气的发展形势,其预测结果可靠;③改进翁氏模型预测该盆地天然气产量峰值时间出现在2047年,峰值产量为1453.28×108 m3,改进Weibull模型预测产量峰值时间出现在2051年,峰值产量为1750.38×108 m3,改进多峰Gauss模型预测产量峰值时间出现在2051年,峰值产量为1423×108 m3。研究认为,针对盆地特点进行天然气产量峰值模型改进后,其预测结果总体符合四川盆地的发展规律,可作为产量发展趋势预测的参考。Sichuan Basin was taken an example to accurately predict medium and long term production,reasonably formu late planning scheme,and realize efficient management and development.After status and characteristics of peak predic tion methods were summarized,three prediction models were selected,including single-peak Weng's model,single-peak Weibull model,and multi-peak Gauss model.Then,three models with modified algorithm were established to figure out the trend of medium and long term gas production in Sichuan Basin and carry out quantitative whole-life-cycle prediction.Results show that(1)gas production in Sichuan Basin represents a trend of fast increasing in the future 30 years;(2)the annual gas production in 2030 predicted by these three models will be in the range of 808×108 m3~876×108 m3,which is in accordance with gas development situation in Sichuan Basin.It's indicated that these prediction results are reliable;and(3)by modified Weng's model,the peak production predicted is 1453.28×10^8 m^3 and it will occur in 2047.By modified Weibull model,the peak production predicted is 1750.38×10^8 m^3 and it will occur in 2051.By modified multi-peak Gauss model,the peak production predicted is 1423×10^8 m^3 and it will occur in 2051.As a result,they are overall in line with development rules of Sichuan Basin and their predicted peak production results can be taken as the reference of produc tion development trend.

关 键 词：峰值 预测模型 天然气 翁氏模型 Weibull模型 GAUSS模型 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]