论“社会熵”在社会稳定风险评估研究中的应用思路  

The Application of"Social entropy"in the Study of Social Stability Risk Assessment

作　　者：李祥飞[1] 路雅静 赵心田 阎颖 Li Xiangfei;Lu Yajing;Zhao Xitian;Yan Ying(Institution of Public Crisis Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China;Tianjin Government Financed Project Appraisal Center,Tianjin 300191,China;Agricultural Bank of China Tianjin Hongqiao Branch,Tianjin 300121,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学公共危机研究所,天津300387 [2]天津市政府投资项目评审中心,天津300191 [3]中国农业银行天津红桥支行,天津300121

出　　处：《未来与发展》2020年第5期5-11,共7页Future and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503178);国家社会科学基金重点项目(13ASH003)。

摘　　要：构建社会主义和谐社会意义重大,为更好确保重大事项顺利实施和完成,需要进行社会稳定风险评估,但是如何科学合理的进行社会稳定风险评估是我们亟需解决和探讨的问题。长期以来,社会稳定风险评估所用指标不仅过于繁杂且缺乏实时关联性,更难以实现动态性监测,因而在实践层面的实质性预警作用极为有限。笔者以物理学中的熵的理论为基础来衡量系统混乱程度,并在此基础上重新定义和提出了"社会熵"的概念,探索了一种全新的社会稳定风险评估路径,旨在提出一种综合考虑不同指标之间相互关联以及可以实现动态监测的社会稳定评估思路,使得社会稳定风险评估更加科学合理。It is of great significance to build a socialist harmonious society.In order to ensure the smooth implementation and completion of major issues,it is necessary to conduct risk assessment of social stability.For a long time,the indicators used in the risk assessment of social stability are not only too complicated and lack of real-time relevance,but also difficult to realize dynamic monitoring.Therefore,the function of substantive early warning in practice is very limited.This study based on the theory of entropy in physics to measure the degree of chaos system,and on the basis of redefining and puts forward the concept of"social entropy",to explore a new path,social stability risk assessment aims to put forward a comprehensive considering the correlation between different indexes and can realize the dynamic monitoring of social stability assessment ideas,make social stability risk assessment more scientific and reasonable.

关 键 词：社会熵 复杂系统 社会稳定 风险评估 

分 类 号：C05[社会学]