人口年龄结构、城乡居民基本养老保险对农村居民消费率的影响——基于2010—2017年中国省际面板数据的实证分析  

The Influence of Population Age Structure and Basic Old-age Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents on Rural Residents'Consumption Rate--Based on the Empirical Analysis of China's Provincial Panel Data from 2010 to 2017

作　　者：王翠琴[1] 李林[1] 薛惠元[2] WANG Cuiqin;Li Lin;XUE Huiyuan

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学社会工作系/农村社会建设与管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《社会保障研究》2020年第3期85-93,共9页Social Security Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“机关事业单位养老保险隐性债务、基金缺口与财务可持续性研究”(批准号:16YJC630152)成果。

摘　　要：利用世代交叠(OLG)模型和2010—2017年中国省际面板数据,实证分析人口年龄结构、城乡居民基本养老保险(简称“城乡居保”)对农村居民消费率的影响。研究发现:老年抚养比、预期寿命均与农村居民消费存在显著的负向关系,少儿抚养比与农村居民消费不存在显著性关系;城乡居保的缴费率、覆盖率与农村居民消费存在显著正向关系,但是城乡居保统一与农村居民消费不存在显著性关系,城乡居保缴费率与覆盖率对农村居民消费存在交互作用;农村居民的消费习惯较为平稳,农村居民收入增长会抑制农村居民消费支出。建议提高城乡居保待遇水平,巩固和完善缴费激励机制,明确政府财政补贴和个人缴费责任。Using the OLG model and the 2010-2017 provincial panel data,this paper empirically analyzed the impact of population age structure and basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents on the consumption rate of rural residents.The study shows as follow:the elderly dependency ratio and life expectancy are negatively correlated with rural residents'consumption while the child dependency ratio is not significantly correlated with rural residents'consumption;there is a significant positive relationship between the contribution rate and coverage rate of insurance and the consumption of rural residents,but there is no significant relationship between the unification of insurance and the consumption of rural residents;there is an interaction between the contribution rate and coverage rate of insurance and the consumption of rural residents;the consumption habits of rural residents are relatively stable,and the growth of rural residents'income inhibits the consumption expenditure of rural residents.To improve the level of basic pension,consolidate and improve the payment incentive mechanism,clarify government financial subsidies and individual payment responsibilities are suggested.

关 键 词：农村居民消费率 少儿抚养比 老年抚养比 城乡居保 覆盖率 缴费率 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险] F323.8[社会学—人口学] C924.2