水库失能事件的应急调度方案评价指标体系研究及在西江的情景应用  

Research on Evaluation Index System of Emergency Scheduling Scheme for Reservoir with Loss of Regulation Capacity and Its Application in Xijiang River

作　　者：任梦之 刘登峰[1] 杨元园[1] 刘东[1] 黄强[1] 万新 REN Mengzhi;LIU Dengfeng;YANG Yuanyuan;LIU Dong;HUANG Qiang;WAN Xin(State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi′an University of Technology,Xi′an 710048,China;SPIC Guangxi Changzhou Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd.,Wuzhou 543000,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]国家电投集团广西长洲水电开发有限公司,广西梧州543000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第5期43-50,共8页Pearl River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900);国家自然科学基金(51779203)。

摘　　要：水库失能事件包括由于泄水建筑物不能正常运行引起的水库不能蓄水或者不能泄水等事件,对水库失能事件进行应急调度可有效降低事件影响程度及范围。针对水库完全不能蓄水或者完全不能泄水的极端失能事件的应急调度方案建立评价指标体系,准则层包括水库安全、供水、发电和生态,指标层包括水库超校核水位历时比、水库水位最大变化幅度比、供水保证比例、供水脆弱性、最大缺水率、最小出力比、发电效益损失、满足生态流量的时间比例和生态流量的满足程度。用层次分析法对各指标的权重进行赋值,并以西江流域水库群为例,对4个水库失能情景的不同方案分别用模糊优选模型、非负矩阵分解算法、基于AGA的投影寻踪聚类模型进行评价。结果表明,不同方法评价出来的方案优劣次序略有差异,综合3种方法给出了各情景的推荐方案。Events of reservoir with loss of regulation capacity include failure of reservoir to store water or discharge water due to abnormal operation of discharge structures. Emergency scheduling of reservoir with loss of regulation capacity can effectively reduce the adverse impact. This paper establishes an evaluation index system for extreme events such as complete failure of reservoir to store or discharge water, with the criteria layer including reservoir safety, water supply, power generation and ecology and the index layer including the duration ratio of reservoir over-check water level, ratio of maximum change range of reservoir water level, ratio of water supply guarantee, vulnerability of water supply, maximum water shortage rate, minimum output ratio, loss of power generation benefits, ratio of time to meet ecological flow and the satisfaction degree of ecological flow;assigns the weight to each index by analytic hierarchy process(AHP);and evaluates the different schemes for reservoirs in Xijiang River Basin under four loss of regulation capacity scenarios with the fuzzy optimization model, non-negative matrix factorization algorithm and AGA-based projection pursuit clustering model. The results show that there is a slight difference in the advantages and disadvantages of the schemes evaluated by different methods, and the recommended schemes under different scenarios are given by integrating the three methods.

关 键 词：水库失能事件 应急调度 评价指标体系 西江流域 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]