个人所得税减免有助于中国城镇家庭提高消费吗?  

Will Income Tax Reduction Stimulate Consumption in Urban China?

作　　者：赵达[1] 王贞 Zhao Da;Wang Zhen

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院 [2]复旦大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第5期27-39,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：四川省社会科学规划基金年度项目“四川省阶梯水价改革节水效应评估”(SC18TJ016);国家博士后基金“中国阶梯水价最优化研究”(2019M6534472);四川大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目“中国个人所得税减免与家庭消费提升研究”(skbsh2019-10)。

摘　　要：预期效应的准确识别往往是政策评估的重点和难点。本文基于中国城镇住户调查2010-2012年月度数据研究发现:第一,2011年6月底个人所得税法修正案获得通过时,工薪家庭消费便已显著增加,并在2011年9月正式实施时达到最大,随后逐步下降,两个月后达到较高稳态(约为0. 20),但在统计意义上并不显著。与既往研究不同,这说明税收减免只在短期提高家庭消费,忽略家庭预期将会导致减税效应低估。第二,家庭增加的支出以服务消费和食物消费为主,耐用消费和债务支出并未显著调整,这可能与减免力度有关。第三,与常规认知不同,政策边际消费倾向更多地随着减税率(而非收入水平或者流动率)增加单调递减。本文通过改进Kueng(2018)所提理论模型,对此进行了解释。It is important and difficult for policy evaluation to identify the anticipation effect accurately.Based on monthly China Urban Household Survey( CUHS) data from 2010 to 2012,this paper finds that:Firstly,when the amendment to the Personal Income Tax Law was passed at the end of June 2011,household consumption had increased significantly. When it was formally implemented in September 2011,household consumption reached its maximum. Then,the estimates gradually declined and reached a relatively steady state( around 0. 20) two months later,but not significant statistically. Different from previous researches,our paper indicates that reduction of income tax in urban China stimulates the household consumption only in the short run and ignoring the household anticipation would lead to a downward bias. Secondly, services and food consumption increases most significantly among all consumption categories. The durable goods and debt expenditure are almost unaffected which may be due to the limited amount of tax reduction. Thirdly,the MPC decreases monotonically with the increase of the tax reduction rate( rather than income level or liquidity),which is contrary to traditional understanding. Our paper modifies the theoretical model by Kueng( 2018) to rationalize the"anomalous phenomenon".

关 键 词：个人所得税 家庭消费 宣告效应 实施效应 事件分析法 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]