高铁开通促进了农业全要素生产率增长吗?——来自长三角地区准自然实验的经验证据  

Does the High Speed Railway Promote the Growth of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity?--Empirical Evidence from the Quasi-natural Experiment in the Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：王亚飞[1] 廖甍 王亚菲 Wang Yafei;Liao Meng;Wang Yafei

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]北京师范大学国民核算研究院

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第5期40-53,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：“巴渝青年学者”人才支持项目;国家社会科学基金重大项目“国际统计标准测度问题挖掘与中国参与的方法论基础研究”(18ZDA123);国家自然科学基金项目“中美实际经济规模比较研究”(71873019)。

摘　　要：本研究将高铁开通作为一项"准自然实验",基于2005-2017年长三角地区25个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用倍差法并借助匹配倍差法和安慰剂测试等稳健性检验工具,对高铁开通的农业全要素生产率增长效应进行实证检验。研究发现:高铁开通在短期和长期都对沿线城市农业全要素生产率增长具有显著的促进作用;将农业全要素生产率分解为技术进步和技术效率后发现,高铁开通对农业全要素生产率的增长效应主要表征为对农业技术进步的推动而非对农业技术效率的改善;高铁开通有助于强化城镇化对农业全要素生产率增长的促进作用以及产业结构对农业全要素生产率增长的反哺作用。在我国高铁建设纵深推进和"乡村振兴战略"全面实施的背景下,应将高铁建设纳入推进乡村振兴战略和促进农业高质量发展的有效手段和政策工具,借助高铁开通的杠杆效应进一步发挥好城镇化、产业结构升级对农业全要素生产率的带动作用。This paper takes the opening of the High Speed Railway( HSR) as a "quasi-natural experiment",and uses the difference-in-difference model,propensity score matching approach and placebo test,based on the panel data of 25 cities at or above the prefecture level in the Yangtze River Delta region from2005 to 2017,to empirically investigate the growth effect of agricultural TFP. We find that HSR has a significant promotion in the agricultural TFP growth of cities along the railway in both short and long terms.Decomposing agricultural TFP into technological progress and technological efficiency,we find that the growth effect of HSR on agricultural TFP is mainly characterized by the technological progress rather than the technological efficiency improvement. In addition,the opening of HSR can help promote or feedback the growth of agricultural TFP by urbanization or industrial structure respectively. In the background of the deepening of China’s High Speed Railway construction and the full implementation of the "rural revitalization strategy",HSR construction should be included as an effective means and policy tool to promote the rural revitalization strategy and the high-quality development of agriculture,and with the leverage effect of the HSR opening,urbanization and upgrading of industrial structure should further promote agricultural total factor productivity.

关 键 词：高速铁路 农业全要素生产率 长三角 倍差法 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济]