对外直接投资对中国外贸发展方式转变的影响分析  

Influence of ODI on Transformation of China's Foreign Trade Development Mode

作　　者：徐艳琴[1] 韦樟清 XU Yan-qin;WEI Zhang-qing(Concord University College Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,Fujian,350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学协和学院,福建福州350117

出　　处：《武汉商学院学报》2020年第1期41-46,共6页Journal of Wuhan Business University

基　　金：福建省教改项目《经贸专业人才群协同培养研究——以协和学院为例》(项目编号:JAS151382);福建省教育科学“十三五”规划2018年度教育科研基地专项课题《应用型建设高校管理科学与工程学科创新发展研究》(项目编号:fjjgzx18-143)。

摘　　要：本文首先定性分析了对外直接投资对外贸发展方式转变的影响;其次,运用AHP层次分析法构建了我国外贸发展方式转变的综合评价指标,并对2000-2018年间我国外贸发展方式进行综合评价;最后,本文构建了对外直接投资和外贸发展方式转变的计量经济模型,运用ADF单位根检验检验变量平稳性、Johansen协整检验两变量的长期均衡关系、用最小二乘法估计两变量的相关性。研究结果表明:无论定性分析还是定量分析,对外直接投资对我国外贸发展方式转变都有积极的促进作用,且根据实证结果,对外直接投资每增加1%,我国外贸发展方式综合评价指标相应增加0.2067%。因此,我国应继续贯彻和落实“走出去”战略,通过加大对外直接投资,促进我国外贸发展方式转变。Firstly,the qualitative method is used to study the influence of outward direct investment(ODI)on transformation of China's foreign trade development mode.Secondly,AHP(analytic hierarchy process)method is applied to construct a comprehensive appraisal index system to evaluate China's foreign trade development mode during the period from 2000 to 2018.Finally,an econometric model is set up to study the influence of ODI on transformation of China's foreign trade development mode,in which ADF unit root is applied to test the stability of the variables,and Johansen co-integration is used to test the long-term equilibrium relationship of the two variables,and the least square method is used to estimate the correlation of the two variables.Both the qualitative and quantitative studies show that ODI plays a positive role in promoting the transformation of China's foreign trade development mode.And the empirical study shows that for every 1% increase in ODI,the comprehensive evaluation index of China's foreign trade development mode increases by 0.2067%.Therefore,the"Going Out"strategy should be continued to increase ODI in order to promote the transformation of China's foreign trade development mode.

关 键 词：JOHANSEN协整检验 对外直接投资 外贸发展方式转变 计量经济模型 长期均衡关系 ADF单位根检验 最小二乘法估计 实证结果 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F752