河南省房地产信贷影响房价的机制分析——基于VAR模型的探讨  

An Analysis of the Mechanism of Real Estate Credit Influencing House Price in Henan Province--Discussion Based on VAR Model

作　　者：杨阳 YANG Yang(School of Business,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《河南工程学院学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期31-36,共6页Journal of Henan University of Engineering(Social Science Edition)

摘　　要：房地产业是改善居民生活条件、提升人民福祉的重要经济产业。研究房地产信贷对房价的影响有助于房地产市场和信贷市场平稳健康发展。基于房地产开发贷款、购房者贷款和信贷利率对房价的影响机制的一般分析,采用VAR模型,对河南省房地产信贷对房价的影响进行建模、检验和实证分析,得出如下结论:河南省房地产信贷规模与房地产价格呈正相关关系;只考虑信贷利率供给侧的情况下,河南省信贷利率与房地产价格呈正相关关系,这给房地产市场调控带来了新的挑战和难题;河南省房地产开发贷款较购房者贷款对房价的影响更为显著。Real estate is an important economic industry to improve the living conditions and the well-being of the people.Studying the influence of real estate credit on house price is helpful to the steady and healthy development of real estate market and credit market.Based on the general analysis of the influence on house price in terms of development loan of real estate,loan of house buyer and credit interest rate,this paper uses VAR model to study the influence of Henan real estate credit on house price from such aspects as model,test and empirical analysis,and draws the following conclusions:the credit scale of Henan real estate has a positive correlation with the price of real estate;if the supply side of the credit interest rate is considered only,there is a positive correlation between interest rate and the price of real estate,which brings new challenges and difficulties to the regulation of real estate market;the development loan of Henan real estate has a more significant impact on house price than the loan of the buyers.

关 键 词：河南省 房地产 信贷规模 信贷利率 房价 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.45[经济管理—金融学]