基于投入产出模型的省际间货运量模拟研究  

Simulation of inter-provincial freight volume based on input-output model

作　　者：李文杰[1] 袁肖峰 杨胜发[1] 杨威[1] 龙浩 陈川 LI Wenjie;YUAN Xiaofeng;YANG Shengfa;YANG Wei;LONG Hao;CHEN Chuan(National Inland Waterway Regulation Engineering Research Center,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Hydraulic and Waterway Transport Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学水利水运工程教育部重点实验室,重庆400074

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2020年第5期1302-1309,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402103)。

摘　　要：现有货运量模拟研究多针对某一区域的货运总量,较少涉及货运流向。在2012年中国31省市投入产出表的基础上,采用引力模型估算区域间贸易系数矩阵,采用列系数模型编制中国31省市42部门的区域间投入产出表,将价值流量转化成货运流量得到省际间货运量。利用2012年资料对模型参数进行率定,利用2017年资料对模型进行验证。研究结果表明:模型在考虑GDP增长和产业结构调整对货运量的影响下,可以较好地模拟各区域货运总量和区域间的货运流向,可为研究GDP和产业结构对货运量的影响提供量化方法,为规划未来交通基础设施的建设规模提供参考。The existing freight volume simulation study is mostly directed to the total volume of freight in a certain area, and less on the flow of freight. Based on the input-output table of China’s 31 provinces and cities in 2012, this paper used the gravity model to estimate the interregional trade coefficient matrix, and used the column coefficient model to compile the interregional input-output table of 42 sectors in 31 provinces and cities in China, and converted value traffic to freight traffic for interprovincial freight. This paper used the 2012 data to rate the model parameters and uses the 2017 data to verify the model. The results show that the model can simulate the total freight volume of each region and the traffic flow between regions under the influence of GDP growth and industrial structure adjustment on freight volume better, which can quantify the impact of GDP and industrial structure on freight volume. The method provides a reference for planning the construction scale of future transportation infrastructure.

关 键 词：区域间投入产出表 GDP 产业结构 货运OD模拟 

分 类 号：F572[经济管理—产业经济]