国民经济动员链中断事件理论框架研究  

Research on the Theoretical Framework of Disruption of National Economy Mobilization Chain

作　　者：史文强 孔昭君[1] 张萌[2] 韩秋露 SHI Wen-qiang;KONG Zhao-jun;ZHANG Meng;HAN Qiu-lu(Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;National Mobilization Development Research Center,Beijing 100824,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学,北京100081 [3]国家发展改革委国防动员研究发展中心,北京100824

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2020年第3期104-112,共9页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473015);国家自然科学基金应急项目(71841051).

摘　　要：【目的/意义】针对国民经济动员链的具体特征,从概念、成因、演化机理和响应策略等方面构建了动员链中断事件理论框架。【设计/方法】立足于中断事件的影响阶段,提出了需求信息中断、供应中断、运输中断和组织中断四种中断类型;结合多米诺骨牌理论和系统安全理论,提出了静态单因素和动态多因素致因模式;【结论/发现】依托生命周期理论,将动员链中断事件分为酝酿期、发生期、消退期;最后,从节点、路径、物资量和组织视角,分析了动员链中断事件的响应策略,为进一步研究更为复杂的国民经济动员链奠定了基础。[Purpose/Significance]According to the characteristics of the national economy mobilization chain,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of mobilization chain disruptions from the aspects of concept,cause,evolution mechanism and reaction mechanism.[Design/Methodology]Based on the impact stage of the disruption event,four types of disruption such as demand information disruption,supply disruption,transportation disruption and organizational disruption are proposed.Combining domino theory and system safety theory,static single factor and dynamic multi-factor causation models are proposed.[Findings/Conclusion]Based on the theory of evolution cycle,mobilization chain disruptions can be divided into three stages:incubation period,occurrence period and extinction period.Finally,from the perspective of node,path,material quantity and organization,the reaction mechanism of the mobilization chain responding to the disruptions were analyzed,which lays a foundation for further study of the more complex national economic mobilization chain.

关 键 词：国民经济动员链 中断 理论框架 演化机理 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]