中国老年失能人口规模预测及对策分析  

Measurement of the Size of the Disabled Elderly Population in Chinaand Analysis of Countermeasures

作　　者：雷咸胜 Lei Xiansheng(Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学,北京100872

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2020年第5期72-78,共7页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目《社会医疗保险“新卑斯麦”改革模式的国际比较研究》(18CSH060);中国人民大学2018年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果。

摘　　要：中国进入老龄社会行列已达20年,近几年老年人长期照护保障制度成为研究的热点。诸多研究认为随着人口老龄化中国的老年失能人口数量会不断增多,文章对2020—2100年间中国老年失能人口数量进行测算,发现老年失能人口数量沿着先增加,接着平缓增加,而后出现下降的趋势变化,并非是不断增多的。对照国际长期照护保险的经验和教训,发现国外建立长期照护保险制度的初始条件与中国存在显著差异,国外快速增长的照护服务成本造成沉重的财政负担,各国从注重机构照护逐渐转向注重家庭照护。因此,中国长期照护保障制度建设应该分阶段推进,优先建立长期照护救助制度,有条件的地区探索长期照护保险制度,当前两项制度成熟定型后再大力发展长期照护福利制度,进而形成多层次的长期照护保障制度体系。现阶段应注重制度的探索和完善,如发展长期照护救助制度、积极维护家庭的照护功能、统一失能鉴定标准及培育照护服务市场的发展等。China has been an aging society for 20 years.In recent years,the construction of long-term care system for the elderly has become a research hotspot.Many studies believe that with the aging of population,the number of disabled elderly people in China will increase continuously.This paper estimates the number of disabled elderly people in China from 2020 to 2100,and finds that the number of disabled elderly people increases first,then increases slowly,and then decreases.Comparing the experience and lessons of international long-term care insurance,we find that the initial conditions of establishing long-term care insurance system in foreign countries are significantly different from those in China.The rapidly growing cost of care services in foreign countries causes a heavy financial burden.Foreign countries gradually shift from institutional care to family care.This paper holds that the construction of China's long-term care security system should be promoted in different stages,with priority given to the establishment of the long-term care assistance system,and the exploration of a long-term care insurance system in regions with suitable conditions.After the two systems are mature and finalized,the long-term care welfare system should be vigorously developed to form a multi-level long-term care security system.Now,China should focus on exploring and improving institutions,such as the development of the long-term care assistance system,the active maintenance of family care function,the unification of disability identification standards and the cultivation of the development of care service market.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 老年失能人口 长期照护保障制度 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理] C913.7[社会学]