金融发展、金融风险对国际资本流入的影响  

Effects of Financial Development and Financial Risk on International Capital Inflows

作　　者：欧阳艳艳 谢家泉 王东明 Ouyang yanyan;Xie Jiaquan;Wang Dongming(International School of Business Finance,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangdong,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Financial Mathematics and Statistics,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangdong,Guangzhou 510521,China;Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际金融学院,广东广州510275 [2]广东金融学院金融数学与统计学院,广东广州510521 [3]上海立信会计金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2020年第1期81-90,80,共11页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家统计局全国统计科学研究重点项目(2019LZ03);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(17XJC790015)。

摘　　要：利用2002年1月至2018年12月的月度数据,结合稳健性检验和分时段VAR就金融发展和金融风险对国际资本流入的影响进行实证检验,结果显示,金融发展、金融风险与利差、汇差、资产价格等因素共同影响着国际资本流入规模,而且其影响效应具有时变性;金融发展和金融风险具有显著性影响,且影响程度稳步加深;利差和汇差在不同时期的影响程度存在明显差异,金融危机前汇差的影响相对较大,金融危机后利差的影响则更为显著。因此,金融监管部门短期内需在不同时期关注汇差等金融资产的价格波动,而中长期则应当着眼于提高金融发展水平、降低金融风险,引导国际资本有序流动。This study conducted an empirical test of the effects of financial development and financial risk on international capital inflows using monthly data from January 2002 to December 2018,combined with robustness test and value at risk(VaR) by period. According to the results,factors such as financial development,financial risk and spread, exchange difference,and asset price affect the scale of international capital inflows,and their effects are time-varying.Financial development and risk were found to have a significant effect on international capital inflows,and their effects steadily deepened. Meanwhile,there was a significant difference in the effects of interest rate differential and exchange difference.The latter had a greater effect before the financial crisis,but the former had a more significant effect after the financial crisis.Financial regulators need to pay attention to the price volatility of financial assets such as exchange difference in different periods over the short term and should focus on improving the level of financial development and reducing financial risks over the medium and long term,thus guiding the orderly flow of international capital.

关 键 词：国际资本流动 金融发展 金融风险 汇率 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]