贸易摩擦与股价波动——基于中美“轮胎特保”案的“准自然实验”检验  

Trade Friction and Stock Price Fluctuation--A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Sino-US Tire Special Insurance Case

作　　者：李众宜 张鹏杨 李双杰[1] LI Zhongyi;ZHANG Pengyang;LI Shuangie(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beiing 100124)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2020年第3期129-145,共17页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链重构下贸易保护的影响效应测度与治理体系构建”(71803005);国家自然科学基金青年项目“人民币汇率波动对美国汇率与贸易法案投票的影响及传导机理研究”(71703005);山东省高等学校人文社会科学研究计划项目“价值链管理视角下企业财务能力提升研究”(J14WG60)。

摘　　要：以2009年中美"轮胎特保"案作为外部冲击构建"准自然实验",考察贸易摩擦对中国上市公司股价波动的影响。结果表明:贸易摩擦对中国相关上市公司的股价存在着显著的负向影响;短期内贸易摩擦对股价的影响渠道主要是投资者对企业的投资信心,与企业的经营绩效无显著相关;从"时间效应"和"阶段效应"的探讨看,贸易摩擦对股价的影响仅存在"短期效应",在开始和正式裁定两个阶段对企业股价产生了负面影响;贸易摩擦对前向关联产业的股价具有显著的负向影响,而对后向关联产业的股价影响则不显著。This paper constructs a quasi-natural experiment by using the impact of the Sino-US Tire Special Insurance case in 2009 as the exogenous shock,and examines the impact of trade friction on the stock prices of Chinese listed companies. The study finds that trade friction has a significantly negative impact on the stock prices of Chinese listed companies. Further research on the influencing mechanism suggests that in short term trade friction influences the stock prices mainly by affecting investors’ confidence rather than the enterprises’ business performance. By exploring the "time effect " and"stage effect"of trade friction on stock prices,it shows that trade friction has only"shortterm effect"on stock prices,which brings negative influence on stock prices at the initial stage and the formal ruling stage. Finally,the study on the industrial linkages suggests that trade friction has a significantly negative impact on the stock prices of the forward-linkage industry,while that on the backward-linkage industry is insignificant.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 “轮胎特保”案 股价波动 产业关联 “准自然实验” 

分 类 号：F752.02[经济管理—国际贸易] F830.91[经济管理—产业经济]