中国县域人口集聚空间格局及影响因素的空间异质性研究  

A Study on the Spatial Pattern of County Population Agglomeration and the Spatial Heterogeneity of Its Influencing Factors in China

作　　者：袁锦标 曹永旺 倪方舟 丘海雄[2] 周春山 YUAN Jin-biao;CAO Yong-wang;NI Fang-zhou;QIU Hai-xiong;ZHOU Chun-shan(Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation,School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275;School of Sociology and Anthropology,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学社会学与人类学学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2020年第3期25-33,共9页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城市群发展对中国人口分布的影响研究”(17BRK010)。

摘　　要：以县域为研究单元,采用人口普查等数据,分析了2000年和2010年中国人口集聚的空间格局、影响因素及空间异质性,结果表明:1)人口集聚空间格局在总体上没有变化,仍保持以“胡焕庸线”为界、东南密西北疏的特征,但空间分布的不均衡性在弱化。2)逐步多元回归模型表明,年均气温、年降水量、第二产业占GDP比重、固定资产投资完成额等是吸引人口的主要因素,海拔高度、距河流距离、距高等级城市最近距离等是驱动人口外流的主要因素。3)地理加权回归模型表明,与县域人口集聚度呈正相关的影响因素有年均气温、第二产业占GDP比重、固定资产投资完成额、人口自然增长率、城镇化率等,与县域人口集聚度呈负相关的影响因素则有年降水量、距河流距离、日照时数、海拔高度等;同时,这些影响因素对人口集聚的影响存在地区差异,具有明显的空间异质性特征。Taking county unit as research object,using the fifth and sixth census as main data,and utilizing population agglomeration,spatial autocorrelation and GWR model as main methods,this paper systematically analyzed the spatial pattern,influence factors and their spatial heterogeneity of the county population agglomeration in China in 2000 and 2010.The results showed that:1)Though the unbalanced spatial distribution pattern has been weakened,generally the spatial pattern has not changed,the population density in the east of Hu Huanyong Line was still higher than the west.2)The result of multiple linear stepwise regression model showed that average annual temperature,annual precipitation,proportion of secondary industry in GDP,fixed assets investment were the main factors to attract population,while altitude,the closest distance to rivers,the closest distance to high-level cities were the main factors to outflow population.3)The result of GWR model showed that average annual temperature,proportion of secondary industry in GDP,fixed assets investment,population growth rate,urbanization rate were mainly positive correlation with agglomeration degree of county population,while the other factors,such as annual precipitation,the closest distance to rivers,sunshine duration,altitude,etc.were negative correlation with agglomeration degree of county population.There are regional differences in the impact of the factors on population agglomeration,and the spatial heterogeneity is obvious.

关 键 词：人口集聚 胡焕庸线 地理加权回归模型 影响因素 空间异质性 中国 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]