我国主要滨海型国家级风景名胜区生命周期研究  

Study on Life Cycle of Main Coastal National Scenic Spots in China

作　　者：郭建科[1] 孙景田 许妍[2] 谷月 GUO Jian-ke;SUN Jing-tian;XU Yan;GU Yue(Marine Economics and Sustainable Development Research Center,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029;National Marine Environment Monitoring Center,Dalian 116023;Shenyang Tourism School,Shenyang 110033,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029 [2]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023 [3]沈阳市旅游学校,辽宁沈阳110033

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2020年第3期116-123,共8页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY039)。

摘　　要：测定旅游地生命周期,对旅游地的可持续发展具有重要意义。该文以Butler的旅游地生命周期理论为依据,运用Logistic模型对我国10个主要滨海型国家级风景名胜区1998-2016年的游人量进行拟合,定量划分各景区的发展阶段,进而利用脉冲响应函数揭示游人量对景区发展作用的具体差异与联系。结果显示:1)符合“S”形发展特征的7个景区大多处于巩固或成熟阶段,并被划分为成熟型、稳定型、发展型,其他3个景区为波动型;2)我国滨海型景区具有游人量增幅较大、发展迅速等特点,对于进入生命周期第五阶段的景区,游人量虽无明显增长,但经济效益仍在提升,不具有Butler理论中停滞阶段的主要特征,该阶段被称为成熟阶段;3)脉冲响应结果显示,当景区生命周期逐次经历各阶段时,游人量对景区发展的影响呈减弱趋势,游客消费水平、景区多元化的经营结构对其推动作用日益增强,景区发展正在实现由单纯依赖游人量增加转变为质的提升。Determining the life cycle of tourist destination is of great significance to the sustainable development of tourist destination.Based on Butler′s theory of tourist destination life cycle,this paper uses Logistic model to fit the number of tourists in 10 main coastal national scenic spots in China from 1998 to 2016,so as to quantitatively divide the development stages of each scenic spot.Finally,the impulse response function is used to reveal the specific differences and relation between the number of tourists and the development of scenic spots.The results show that:1)Most scenic spots which conform to the"S"development characteristics are in the consolidation or maturity stage,and are divided into mature,stable and developmental scenic spots,and the other three scenic spots are classified as fluctuating scenic spots.2)China′s coastal scenic spots have the characteristics of rapid growth and rapid development of visitors.For scenic spots which enter the fifth stage of life cycle,the number of visitors has not increased significantly,but the economic benefits are still increasing.Generally speaking,it does not have the main characteristics of the stagnation stage of Butler′s theory,so this stage is called mature stage.3)The impulse response results show that when the life cycle of scenic spots goes through various stages one by one,the impact of visitor volume on the development of scenic spots tends to weaken.The level of tourists′consumption and the diversified management structure of scenic spots play an increasingly important role in promoting the development of scenic spots.Therefore,the development of scenic spots is changing from relying solely on the increase of visitor volume to its own quality′s improvement.

关 键 词：滨海旅游地 旅游地生命周期 LOGISTIC模型 脉冲响应函数 滨海型国家级风景名胜区 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]