资本市场联动及风险防范--国际股市、债市、汇市现状研判  

Capital Market Linkage and Risk Prevention--Research and Judgment on the Current Situation of International Stock Market,Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market

作　　者：黄少军[1] Huang Shaojun(Shenzhen Stock Exchange,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518038)

机构地区：[1]深圳证券交易所,广东深圳518038

出　　处：《开放导报》2020年第3期51-57,共7页China Opening Journal

摘　　要：对疫情以来中国、美国、日本三国股票、债券、外汇金融市场的实证研究显示,金融市场跨市场相关性和联动性显著增强,中美股市均为债市、汇市波动的引导方和联动效应的净溢出方,美中、美日股市联动指数在疫情期间显著上升,美股是中、日股市波动的引导方。建议一方面将国内金融风险防范重点落至股市这一风险中枢,监测市场反应,适时进行预期引导;另一方面及时评估美国救市政策效应,尽快启动风险预警机制,有效防范输入型风险。Empirical research on the stock,bond,and foreign exchange financial markets of China,the United States,and Japan since the outbreak of Covid-19 shows that the cross-market correlation and linkage of the financial markets have increased significantly.China and U.S.are the guide of bond market,currency fluctuations and the net overflow party linkage effect.U.S.-China,U.S.-Japan’s stock market linkage index increases significantly during outbreaks,U.S.stocks are the guide of,Japanese stock market volatility in the party.It is suggested that,on the one hand,the focus of domestic financial risk prevention should be placed on the stock market,which is the risk center.On the other hand,we should timely assess the effect of the U.S.market rescue policy,launch the risk warning mechanism as soon as possible,and effectively guard against imported risks.

关 键 词：股票市场 债券市场 汇率市场 联动 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F832.5