“欧佩克+”限产行动力及其市场影响研究  

Comprehensive analysis on OPEC+’s production cut to the global oil market

作　　者：刘朝全[1] 石卫[1] 罗继雨 LIU Chaoquan;SHI Wei;LUO Jiyu(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第5期20-26,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：新冠疫情在全球暴发,重创全球经济和国际石油市场,"欧佩克+"首次形成了"泛欧佩克+"的限产方式。系统研究欧佩克的限产方式和执行结果,分析执行效果欠佳的原因,对2020年5月1日开始实施的限产结果进行预判。多年来,欧佩克对其成员国执行生产配额缺乏有效监督检查机制和相应的处罚机制,成员国对配额部分履行、完全履行和歧视性履行,导致经常超配额生产。3种基础产量确定方式存在各种漏洞,加上欧佩克对一些成员国实行限产豁免,使市场上实际削减的石油供应量打了折扣。本轮"泛欧佩克+"限产,对国际油价的提振作用有限。只有疫情得到控制、经济尽快恢复,加上多重措施,才能实质性提振国际油价。As the outbreak of COVID-19,the world economy and the oil market has been struck seriously."OPEC+" formed a sort of "pan OPEC+" production cut for the first time in the history.This article studies OPEC’s production cutting methods,analyzes the causes of current poor implementation effects,and predicts the results for this round of production cut starting from May 1st,2020.Historically,OPEC lacked effective supervision,checking and punishment measures to those countries violating the production quota and members took the partial,complete,or discriminatory implementation on the production cut obligation in which led to over-quota production.The 3 traditional methodologies to determine the baseline production has many loopholes and some member countries are exempt of production cut by OPEC,which watered down the actual squeezed oil supply from the market.The effect on stimulating oil price of this round of "pan OPEC+" production cut is limited.The fundamental recovery of the oil market lies on the full control of COVID-19,the resumption of the world economy,and comprehensive effective measures taken by all governments.

关 键 词：欧佩克+ 限产 基础产量 原油供给 油价 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]