土地利用变化对雅砻江流域水文极值的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of LUCC on Hydrological Extremum in Yalong River Basin

作　　者：董立俊 董晓华[1,2] 魏冲 喻丹 薄会娟[1,2] 郭靖 DONG Li-jun;DONG Xiao-hua;WEI Chong;YU Dan;BO Hui-juan;GUO Jing(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China;Water Resources Security Collaborative Innovation Center in Hubei Provence,Wuhan 430070,China;Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Ltd.,Hangzhou 310014,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430070 [3]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州310014

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2020年第4期13-21,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究(DJ-ZDZX-016-02);国家自然科学基金项目(40701024,41401018)。

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动是影响流域水文循环和水资源调配的两个主要驱动因素。雅砻江流域为我国重要的水电基地,其规划总装机容量达3 000万kW,量化分析土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对水文极值的影响对于雅砻江流域梯级水库群防洪调度和确保流域防洪安全具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。首先建立了雅砻江流域日尺度SWAT模型,然后采用CLUE-S模型模拟了城镇化发展情景下的土地利用空间分布,并在现状土地利用基础上进行退耕还林操作,进而模拟了3种土地利用情景(基准期、城镇化情景及退耕还林情景)下的日径流序列,结果表明:建立的SWAT模型能较好模拟和重现雅砻江流域基准期水文极值,模型率定期和验证期的Nash-Sutcliffe系数、确定性系数均在0.70以上,除洼里站的验证期外PBIAS的绝对值小于10%,模拟精度较高。城镇化土地利用情景下,城镇面积占比由0.12%增加到0.37%,耕地和未利用地面积占比略有减少;雅江站、麦地龙站及洼里站的日最大流量整体上增加,增幅依次为4.6%、3.4%及2.3%,增幅从上游至下游逐步减小。退耕还林土地利用情景下,耕地面积占比由5.43%降至2.85%,林地和草地面积占比相应增加;雅江站、麦地龙站及洼里站的日最大流量略有减少,但减少幅度十分有限,洼里站减少幅度最大,也仅为-1.2%。Climate change and human activities are the two main driving factors affecting hydrological cycle and water resources allocation. Yalong River Basin is an important hydropower base in China. Its planned total installed capacity is up to 30 million kilowatts. A quantitative analysis of the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological extremes is necessary and valuable for flood control dispatching of cascade reservoirs in Yalong River Basin and ensuring flood control safety. Firstly, the daily scale SWAT model of Yalong River Basin is established. Then, the CLUE-S model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use under the urbanization development scenario. Based on the current land use situation, the spatial distribution of land use under the situation of GGP(grain for green program) is obtained. Daily runoff series under the three land use scenarios(base period, urbanization scenario and GGP scenario) are simulated and analyzed. The main results are as follows: First, the SWAT model can simulate and reproduce the hydrological extremes of Yalong River Basin in the base period of Yajiang, Wali and Xiaodeshi stations well. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and deterministic coefficient of the calibration and validation period are all above 0.70, and the absolute value of PBIAS is less than 10% except for validation period of Wali Station, so the simulation accuracy is acceptable. Second, under the urbanization land use scenario, the proportion of urban area increases from 0.12% to 0.37%, and the proportion of cultivated land and unused land decreases slightly. The daily maximum flow of Yajiang,Maidilong and Wali stations increases as a whole,and the average increment is 4.6%,3.4% and 2.3%,respectively,gradually decreasing from upstream to downstream.Third,under the GGP land use scenario,the proportion of cultivated land decreases from 5.43% to 2.85%,and the proportion of woodland and grassland increases accordingly. The daily maximum flow of Yajiang,Maidilong and Wali stations decreases slightly,but th

关 键 词：土地利用 SWAT模型 水文极值 城镇化 退耕还林 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]