采用改进四阶段法的市域轨道线网客流需求预测  

Passenger flow forecast of metropolitan rail network based on the improved four-stage method

作　　者：徐新颖 赖元文[1] 马振鸿 连培昆 XU Xinying;LAI Yuanwen;MA Zhenhong;LIAN Peikun(College of Civil Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350108,China;College of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学土木工程学院,福建福州350108 [2]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《福州大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期375-381,共7页Journal of Fuzhou University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(2014J05060)。

摘　　要：考虑中心城区与乡镇居民出行特征的差异,提出一种适用于市域范围的预测方法.该方法以传统四阶段法为基础,分别建立中心城区与市域客流预测模型.中心城区客流独立预测后作为市域客流的一部分参与市域客流分配,分配结果通过反馈机制作用于交通分布模型,循环迭代直至平衡收敛.利用福清市现状基础数据运用TransCAD软件标定模型参数并校验,结果表明,调查值与模拟值的相对误差满足预测精度要求.最后采用已标定模型对福清市域轨道线网进行客流预测,结果表明,3个目标年客流预测结果符合迭代收敛判定标准,进一步说明该方法具有理论与实践应用价值.Considering the difference in the travel characteristics between urban and suburban residents,a prediction method suitable for whole city scope was proposed.Based on the traditional four-stage method,the method establishes urban and metropolitan passenger flow forecasting models respectively.After the independent forecast of the passenger flow in the central city,it participates in the urban passenger flow distribution as part of the metropolitan city passenger flow.The distribution results are generated by the feedback machine to the traffic distribution model,then iterate until balance converges.The TransCAD software is used to calibrate and verify model parameters using the basic data of Fuqing,The results show that the relative error between the survey value and the simulated value meets the prediction accuracy requirements.Finally,using the calibrated model to predict the passenger flow of metropolitan rail network of Fuqing City.The results show that the three target annual passenger flow prediction results are consistent with the iterative convergence criterion,which further demonstrates the theoretical and practical application value.

关 键 词：交通规划 轨道客流预测 四阶段法 公共交通客流分配 

分 类 号：U212.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]