风廓线雷达在广州市一次污染天气监测预警中的应用研究  

Application Study of Wind-Profiling Radar in Pollution Weather Monitoring and Early Warning in Guangzhou

作　　者：侯灵 廖菲 胡金磊[3] 齐彦斌 Hou Ling;Liao Fei;Hu Jinlei;Qi Yanbin(Guangdong Meteorological Observation Data Center,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 511430,China;South China Sea Branch of State Oceanic Administration,Guangzhou 510310,China;Joint Open Laboratory for Weather Modification of China Meteorological Administration/People’s Government of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Weather Modification Office,Changchun 130062,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气象探测数据中心,广州510640 [2]广州市气象台,广州511430 [3]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广州510310 [4]中国气象局/吉林省人民政府人工影响天气联合开放实验室,长春130062 [5]吉林省人工影响天气办公室,长春130062

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2020年第2期130-137,共8页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41775140,41305029);中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M42);广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(2015Q08);广东省科技计划项目(2018B020207012)。

摘　　要：为了研究风廓线雷达衍生产品在污染天气预警中应用的可能性,基于风廓线雷达二次产品(边界层高度、等高层水平风场、垂直风切变、大气稳定度变率),对2017年1月36日发生在广州的一次污染天气过程进行分析。结果表明:边界层高度对空气质量指数级别影响较大,边界层高度越低,空气质量指数级别相对越高,低边界层高度(390-870 m)出现频率较高时,空气质量易变差。选取750 m和2430 m探测结果表征此次污染过程中边界层内、外特征。研究发现,边界层内水平风速、垂直风切变与地面污染物浓度呈负相关,相关系数在滞后时间为2 h时最大(约为-0.50),而边界层外两要素与污染物浓度呈正相关(最大为0.45)。边界层内大气稳定度变率与地面污染物浓度呈正相关,边界层外两者相关性随滞后时间变化幅度较大。利用以上风廓线雷达二次产品建立了污染物浓度的统计预报方程。统计检验发现,边界层内水平风速、边界层外水平风速和边界层内大气稳定度变率对地面污染物浓度变化的贡献较大,边界层高度、边界层内风切变及边界层外稳定度变率对地面污染物浓度影响相对较小。利用本地2018年1月15-22日的污染事件对统计预报方程的验证结果表明,预报方程在本地污染性天气预报中具有一定的适用性。In order to study the application possibility of wind-profiling radar derivative products to the early warning of pollution weather,the paper analyzes a pollution weather process in Guangzhou in 36 January 2017 based on wind-profiling radar derivative products(boundary layer height,upper-level horizontal wind,vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability variability).The results show that the higher pollution level often occurs at the lower the boundary layer height,and when the lower(390870 m)boundary layer height occurs frequently,it is easy to cause air quality deterioration.The 750 m and 2430 m detection data are selected for characterizing the internal and external features of the boundary layer during the pollution process.It is found that horizontal wind speed and vertical wind shear are negatively correlated to the surface pollutant concentration in the interior of boundary layer and the maximum correlation coefficient is about-0.50 when the lag time is 2 h.The two elements are positively correlated outside the boundary layer(up to 0.45).In the interior of the boundary layer,the atmospheric stability variability is positively correlated to the surface pollutant concentration,while the correlation between the two outside the boundary layer varies greatly with the lag time.The statistical prediction equation of pollutant concentration is established by using the above derivative products of wind-profiling radar.Statistical test reveals that horizontal wind speeds in both the interior and external of the boundary layer and the atmospheric stability variability inside the boundary layer contribute more to the change of surface pollutant concentration,while the boundary layer height,the wind shear inside the boundary layer and the stability variability outside the boundary layer have relatively small impacts on it.In addition,the results of statistical prediction equation verified by the local pollution event from 15 to 22 January 2018 show its applicability in local pollution weather forecasts.These results c

关 键 词：风廓线雷达 二次产品 污染性天气 预警指标 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P412.25[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]