基于SaTScan的2015-2018年泸州市肺结核疫情时空分析  

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Tuberculosis Epidemic With SaTScan in Luzhou City From 2015 to 2018

作　　者：吴田勇[1] 赵良华[1] 逯嘉[2] 陈航[1] 张燕[1] 黄娅玲 WU Tianyong;ZHAO Lianghua;LU Jia;CHEN Hang;ZHANG Yan;HUANG Yaling(Luzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Luzhou 646000,Sichuan Province,China;Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China.)

机构地区：[1]泸州市疾病预防控制中心,四川泸州646000 [2]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2020年第5期525-530,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的利用SaTScan软件对泸州市各乡镇2015-2018年肺结核疫情回顾性时空分析,为泸州市的肺结核防控提供科学有效的措施。方法收集2015-01/2018-12泸州市144个乡镇(街道)的肺结核相关信息和数据,采用SaTScan软件进行时空聚集性分析。结果 2015-2018年泸州市肺结核报告发病率分别为74.10/10万(3 402例)、76.17/10万(3 264例)、69.32/10万(2 985例)和63.10/10万(2 924例),且2015-2017年主要发病分布在3-4月和12月,2018年分布在3-5月。时空扫描分析显示2015-2018年泸州市肺结核疫情存在6个聚集区域,包括6个县(区)中的82个乡镇(街道)。其中一类聚集区域对数释然比为91.68,相对危险度为1.73,P<0.05;二类聚集区域对数似然比为45.86,相对危险度为1.26,P<0.05;三类聚集区域,对数似然比为36.63,相对危险度为1.85,P<0.05;四类聚集区域对数似然比为25.49,相对危险度为4.29,P<0.05;五类聚集区域对数似然比为19.55,相对危险度为1.62,P<0.05;六类聚集区域对数似然比为16.97,相对危险度为1.62,P<0.05。结论泸州市部分乡镇(街道)仍是肺结核空间聚集的主要区域,尤以古蔺、叙永地带的聚集性最高。Objective To retrospectively analyze the Tuberculosis epidemics in Luzhou from 2015-2018 by using Sa TScan software,so as to providing scientific evidences for further Tuberculosis prevention and control. Methods The data on tuberculosis of 144 town(street) in Luzhou from January 2015 to December 2018 were collected, and the spatiotemporal aggregation analysis were performed with Sa TScan. Results From 2015 to 2018, the incidence of tuberculosis in Lu Zhou were 74.10/105(3 402 case),76.17/105(3 264 case),69.32/105(2 985 case) and 63.10/105(2 924 case),the main incidence was in March to April and December in 2015 to 2017 and in March to May in2018. The Spatial-time scan analysis showed that there were 6 clustering districts of tuberculosis in Luzhou, including 82 towns(streets) of 6 counties(districts). The primary cluster log likelihood ratio(LLR) was 91.68 and the relative risk(RR) was 1.73(P<0.05), the secoindary cluster LLR was 45.86 and RR was 1.26(P<0.05), the third cluster LLR was 36.63 and RR was 1.85(P<0.05),the fourth cluster LLR was 25.49 and RR was 4.29(P<0.05),the fifth cluster LLR was 19.55 and RR was 1.62(P<0.05),the sixth cluster LLR was 16.97 and RR was 1.62(P<0.05). Conclusion Some towns(streets) are still the key spatial clustering districts of tuberculosis,especially in Xuyong and Gulin county.

关 键 词：肺结核 时空分析 SaTScan 相对危险度 对数似然比 

分 类 号：R521[医药卫生—内科学]