新冠病毒肺炎疫情下的变与不变  

A Look at the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic

作　　者：周茂华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国光大银行金融市场部

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2020年第3期19-26,共8页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：本文结合2003年"非典"影响特征与当期我国面临内外环境,分析此次新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国经济、市场影响,认为此次疫情并未改变我国经济社会发展的主要矛盾,中长期向好基本面未变,股市在经历短期冲击后,将重新回归中长期结构性慢牛格局,中枢将缓步抬升,而债市呈现先扬后抑走势,但利率上行高度受全球大环境制约。This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China’s economy and markets,using the SARS outbreak of 2003 as a basis for comparison.It contends that the epidemic has not changed the main obstacles in China’s economic and social development,and the nation’s strong economic fundamentals remain unchanged.After experiencing a short-term shock,the stock market will resume a slow,upward trend over the medium and long-term term.The bond market will rise initially and then come under pressure.However,the upward trend in interest rates is tightly constrained by the global environment.

关 键 词：疫情 实体经济 金融市场 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]