稻田土壤-作物系统模型参数敏感性分析与模型验证  

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for Soil-Rice System Model

作　　者：史鑫蕊 梁浩 周丰[4,5] 胡克林 SHI Xinrui;LIANG Hao;ZHOU Feng;HU Kelin(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation(North China),Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100193,China;College of Agricultural Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,Ministry of Eduction,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100193 [2]农业农村部华北耕地保育重点实验室,北京100193 [3]河海大学农业工程学院,南京210098 [4]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [5]教育部地表过程分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2020年第5期252-262,271,共12页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0201202);中国博士后科学基金项目(2019T120159)。

摘　　要：为提高稻田土壤-作物模型校准过程的效率和精度,以长江中游地区两年的稻田试验数据为基础,采用Morris和Sobol’两种方法对WHCNS_Rice模型参数进行了全局敏感性分析,并在此基础上进行模型校准和验证。结果表明,两种方法得到的模型主要敏感性参数基本一致,与Sobol’方法相比,Morris方法具有计算量小和筛选快速的优势。土壤水力学参数和作物参数对模型输出项均有较大的影响,尤其是土壤水力学参数中的饱和含水率、田间持水率以及犁底层饱和导水率;作物参数中生育期总有效积温、最大比叶面积和作物系数对作物生长过程影响较大;氮素转化参数中仅氨挥发一阶动力学系数和反硝化经验系数分别对氨挥发和氮反硝化有一定的影响,其余参数均不敏感。在此基础上,固定非敏感参数,重点校准上述敏感参数。模型校验结果表明,模型模拟的地上部干物质质量、作物吸氮量、蒸散量和田面水高度均与实测值吻合较好,模拟值与实测值线性回归方程的斜率和相关系数均接近于1,P小于0.01,说明校验后的模型可用于模拟该地区的水稻生长过程及稻田水分动态和氮素去向。采用Morris方法对筛选出的模型敏感性参数进行模型校准和验证,可以大大提高模型校验的效率和精度。本研究可为稻田土壤作物系统WHCNS_Rice模型参数的校准和模型的推广应用提供技术支持。The nitrogen(N)transport and transformation processes in rice field is more complex than that in dry land.Process-based soilrice system model requires many input parameters and it is difficult to calibrate,which severely restricts the model application in rice production region.To improve the calibration efficiency and reduce uncertainty in simulations,both Morris and Sobol’methods were used to analyze the global sensitivities of input parameters(soil hydraulic,crop,and N transformation parameters)of the WHCNS_Rice model and guide model calibration.Two years of rice field experiments were conducted in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.Ponding water depth,evapotranspiration(ET),dry matter weight and crop N uptake were all collected and used to evaluate the model.Results showed that the selected sensitive parameters were almost consistent for two methods,but the Morris method could quickly and effectively screen out sensitive parameters with small calculation workload,which is an effective global sensitivity analysis method for the WHCNS_Rice model.Among all model input parameters,the soil hydraulic parameters and crop parameters had the greatest influence on the output variables of crop growth,water and N fates compared with N transformation parameters.Within the soil hydraulic parameters,saturated moisture,field capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity of the plowpan were the most sensitive parameters.For crop parameters,LAI,yield,dry matter weight,crop N uptake and ET were sensitive to total accumulated temperature,maximum specific leaf area and crop coefficient in different periods.Among the N turnover parameters,only the first order kinetic constant for volatilization and the denitrification empirical coefficient had some effects on ammonia volatilization and denitrification processes,respectively.Based on the results of sensitivity analysis,the sensitive parameters were calibrated to minimize error between simulated and observed measurements.The results showed that the simulated dry matter weight

关 键 词：稻田 敏感度分析 Morris方法 Sobol’方法 模型校验 WHCNS_Rice模型 

分 类 号：S152[农业科学—土壤学]