P2P发展对居民杠杆率的影响分析——基于贝叶斯VAR和变系数面板模型的研究  

Analysis of the Impact of P2P Development on Residents’Leverage——Research Based on Bayesian VAR and Variable Coefficient Panel Model

作　　者：李程[1] 洪岩 Li Cheng;Hong Yan(School of Economics and Management, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387,China;Tianjin Precision Interactive Technology Company, Tianjin 300121,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济管理学院,天津300387 [2]天津精准互动科技公司,天津300121

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2020年第3期73-82,共10页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目(19FJYB009)。

摘　　要：以P2P成交额作为最重要指标,从分析我国互联网金融发展的现状入手,通过对我国互联网P2P平台的数量以及交易量、个人消费贷款等各类金融数据的整理与总结,描述P2P与居民杠杆率之间的联系,并使用贝叶斯VAR模型和变系数面板模型,实证研究P2P成交额和居民部门杠杆率的关系,结论认为以P2P为代表的互联网金融的发展总体上会造成居民杠杆率的提升,但是时间序列分析认为P2P对居民杠杆率的影响是先负后正,而面板模型分析认为不同省份的影响也有所不同,最后根据结论提出了相应的政策建议。Taking P2P transaction volume as the most important indicator,starting from the analysis of the current status of China's Internet finance development,by sorting and summarizing various financial data such as the number of Internet P2P platforms in China,transaction volume,personal consumption loans,and describing the connection between P2P and resident leverage.And use Bayesian VAR model and variable coefficient panel model to empirically study the relationship between P2P turnover and the leverage ratio of the resident sector.It is concluded that the development of Internet finance represented by P2P will generally cause the increase of the resident leverage ratio,but the time series The analysis believes that the impact of P2P on the leverage ratio of residents is negative first and then positive,and the panel model analysis believes that the impact of different provinces is also different,and finally puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the conclusions.

关 键 词：贝叶斯VAR 居民杠杆率 P2P 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F832