基于Angstrom-Prescott模型和空间插值的山东省月太阳辐射再估算  

Monthly solar radiation re-estimation in Shandong based on Angstrom-Prescott model and spatial interpolation

作　　者：王仁政 单正垛[1] 王建新[1] 孟赫 宫响[1] WANG Ren-zheng;SHAN Zheng-duo;WANG Jian-xin;MENG He;GONG Xiang(School of Mathematics and Physics,Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266061, China;Qingdao Environmental Monitoring Center, Qingdao 266000, China)

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学数理学院,山东青岛266061 [2]青岛环境监测中心站,山东青岛266000

出　　处：《山东科学》2020年第3期93-99,共7页Shandong Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41406010)。

摘　　要：基于Angstrom-Prescott模型和空间插值法构建了山东省各地的月太阳辐射估算方法,并利用山东省3个国家站(济南、莒县和福山)和菏泽、聊城、淄博及青岛的辐射观测数据验证了估算方法的准确性。首先利用山东省3个国家站1992年—2015年的辐射与日照百分率观测数据,采用最小二乘法拟合得到不同月份Angstrom-Prescott模型系数并以2016年观测数据验证。其次,分别使用不同空间插值法对菏泽、聊城、淄博和青岛进行太阳辐射估算并根据结果选择最优空间插值法。最后,将该方法与其他文献方法进行对比分析。2016年国家站的月太阳辐射估算结果显示其月平均σMRE约为3.5%,σRMSE在17 MJ/m^2~24 MJ/m^2,因此该A-P系数具有较高的准确性。在菏泽、聊城、淄博及青岛4站的估算中选定误差最小(σMRE约为7.22%,σRMSE约16 MJ/m^2~69 MJ/m^2)的最小曲率法作为最优空间插值法。与其他文献方法对比的结果表明,基于Angstrom-Prescott模型和空间插值法估算月太阳辐射准确度较高,可应用于其他区域月太阳辐射的估算。Based on the Angstrom-Prescott model and spatial interpolation method,an estimation method of monthly solar radiation in Shandong Province is constructed herein,and the accuracy of the proposed method is verified using the radiation observation data from three national stations(Jinan,Juxian,and Fushan)and those from Heze,Liaocheng,Zibo,and Qingdao.First,based on the observation data of radiation and sunshine percentage between 1992 to 2015 from the three national stations,the Angstrom-Prescott model coefficients(A-P coefficients)in different months are obtained using the least square fitting method and verified using the observation data in 2016.Then,the solar radiation in Heze,Liaocheng,Zibo,and Qingdao is estimated using different spatial interpolation methods,and an optimal spatial interpolation method is selected based on these results.Finally,this method is compared with other methods in literature.The estimation results of monthly solar radiation in the national stations in 2016 show that the monthly averageσMRE is approximately 3.5%,and the monthly averageσRMSE is approximately 17 MJ/m^2~24 MJ/m^2,proving that the A-P coefficient has a high accuracy.From the estimation results of monthly solar radiation in Heze,Liaocheng,Zibo,and Qingdao stations,the minimum curvature method with the least error(σMRE is approximately 7.22%,σRMSE is approximately 16 MJ/m^2~69 MJ/m^2)is selected as the optimal spatial interpolation method.Compared with other methods in literature,results show that the accuracy of monthly solar radiation estimation based on the proposed method is higher,and it can be extended to other regions.

关 键 词：月太阳总辐射 Angstrom-Prescott模型 空间插值 山东省 

分 类 号：TK511[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]