基于WRF数值模拟的夏季强对流测定方法研究  

Study on summer strong convection determination method based on WRF numerical simulation

作　　者：张琪 马旭林[1] ZHANG Qi;MA Xu-lin(College of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210000,China;Sanmenxia Meteorological Bureau,Sanmenxia 472000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210000 [2]三门峡市气象局,三门峡472000

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2020年第2期512-518,共7页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目“一次飑线过程的中尺度数值模拟及飑前系统特征分析”(KY201934);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目“重大灾害性天气的短时短期精细化无缝隙预报技术研究”(2017YFC1502000)资助.

摘　　要：在固定时间内使WRF数值模式的预报和观测间距实现最小化,是实时准确测定夏季强对流的重要依据,因此研究一种基于WRF数值模拟的夏季强对流测定方法.通过分析河南省2018年7月2日至7月23日闪电定位资料和降水资料,统计夏季强对流天气中降水强度与闪电频数关系,将二者进行线性拟合,根据拟合结果将夏季强对流天气中闪电频数反演至降水强度,并将反演后的降水强度通过四维变分同化资料方法,同化至WRF数值模拟中,获取最终WRF极小化代价函数,实现夏季强对流天气实时准确测定.通过该方法对河南省某机场进行WRF数值模拟研究发现,模拟结果的水平风速、垂直速度、位温与扰动气压变化明显,可准确测定该机场的夏季强对流天气,具有可靠性.Minimizing the prediction and observation spacing of WRF numerical model in a fixed time is an important basis for real-time and accurate determination of summer strong convection. Therefore, a method for measuring summer strong convection based on WRF numerical simulation is studied. Based on the analysis of lightning location data and precipitation data from July 2 to July 23, 2018 in Henan Province, the relationship between precipitation intensity and lightning frequency in summer severe convective weather is statistically analyzed, and the two are linearly fitted. According to the fitting results, lightning frequency in summer severe convective weather is inverted to precipitation intensity, and the inverted precipitation intensity is assimilated to WRF value through four-dimensional variational assimilation data method. In the simulation, the final WRF minimization cost function is obtained to realize the real-time and accurate determination of severe convective weather in summer. Through the WRF numerical simulation of an airport in Henan Province, it is found that the horizontal wind speed, vertical velocity, potential temperature and disturbance barometric pressure of the simulation results change significantly, which can accurately measure the summer severe convective weather of the airport and has reliability.

关 键 词：WRF数值模拟 夏季强对流 测定方法 闪电频数 降水强度 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]