基于中俄石油合作的能源合作稳定性研究  

Stability Study of Energy Cooperation Based on Sino-Russian Oil Cooperation

作　　者：康旭华[1] 赵卫军 高文静[1] KANG Xu-hua;ZHAO Wei-jun;Gao Wen-jing(School of Economics, Shanxi University of Finance & Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China;China Center for Special Economic Zone Research, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学经济学院,山西太原030006 [2]深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《预测》2020年第3期65-73,共9页Forecasting

基　　金：山西省软科学基金资助项目(2018041063-6);山西省哲学社会科学“十二五”规划2015年度资助项目(晋规办字[2015]3号);山西财经大学教学改革创新资助项目(2018201)。

摘　　要：本文以中俄石油合作为例,将影响国际能源合作稳定性的因素划分为能源供给稳定性、能源需求稳定性、外部环境稳定性三个矢量,运用主成分分析法,通过构建3D空间矢量模型,将上述影响因素合成国际能源合作稳定性综合发展水平。借鉴相关数学方法,本文提出了国际能源合作稳定性协调均衡评价标准。研究发现中俄能源合作稳定性综合水平波段性增强,能源合作稳定性子系统间发展不均衡,协调均衡度呈倒L型趋势。因此,本文认为我国一方面需要改变在能源合作过程中的被动地位,维持合作主体双方力量的均衡;另一方面要制定更为完善的能源可持续发展战略,加快技术革新,不断降低对石油资源的依赖。Taking oil cooperation of Sino-Russia as an example,this paper divides the factors that affect the stability of international energy cooperation into three vectors:stability of energy supply,stability of energy demand and stability of external environment.Then,by using the principal component analysis method,it constructed a 3D space vector model to synthesize the above factors into the comprehensive development level of the stability of international energy cooperation.Referring to relevant mathematical methods,this paper puts forward a coordinated and balanced evaluation standard for the stability of international energy cooperation.The results show that the stability of energy cooperation between China and Russia is enhanced by horizontal wave segments,the development of energy cooperation stability subsystems is uneven,and the coordination equilibrium degree is in an inverted L-haped trend.Therefore,this paper holds the view that,on the one hand,China needs to change its passive position in the process of energy cooperation and maintain the balance of power between the two partners.On the other hand,it is necessary to formulate a more perfect strategy for sustainable development of energy resources,speed up technological innovation,and continuously reduce dependence on petroleum resources.

关 键 词：3D空间矢量 中俄能源合作 主成分分析 稳定性综合发展水平 协调均衡度 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]