基于“一带一路”的重庆物流灰色模型预测及包装管理研究  

Study on Chongqing logistics grey model prediction and packaging management based on the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：夏文汇[1] 张兰蕤 夏乾尹 黎明[3] 蔡宁敬 XIA Wenhui;ZHANG Lanrui;XIA Qianyin;LI Ming;CAI Ningjing(School of Management , Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China;School of Business, Georgia State University, Atlanta 30302, America;Development Planning Division, Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences, Chongqing 402160, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学管理学院,重庆400054 [2]佐治亚州立大学商学院,亚特兰大30302 [3]重庆文理学院发展规划处,重庆402160

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2020年第5期58-66,共9页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划重大应用项目“中国(重庆)自由贸易试验区改革中重庆国际物流运输协同发展研究”(2017ZDYY17);重庆市社会科学规划一般项目“面向‘两点两地’定位的重庆国际物流枢纽高地建设研究”(2018YBGL066)。

摘　　要：为“一带一路”倡议下重庆区域物流规划和决策提供依据,最大限度地提高区域货运物流规划质量和货运包装管理效率。梳理、总结灰色理论的应用价值、区域物流态势、需求预测以及货运包装管理的相关文献,运用GM(1,1)模型的基本原理,开展货运物流需求预测及包装管理研究,以重庆为例,根据重庆地区货运量的历史数据,建立相应的GM(1,1)模型,选取重庆2010—2018年货运原始数据,运用MATLAB软件,预测重庆2019—2028年货运物流需求总量及其发展趋势。预测结果表明:重庆未来十年货运量近似呈正比例直线趋势上升,遵循货运物流以及货运包装需求发展规律,建立模型的预测值与实际值误差较小,预测值围绕实际值及其演变趋势出现小范围上下波动,表明预测精度高且验证了模型预测的适用性和可行性。该模型适用于把握区域货运物流需求规律及包装管理,为进一步加强货运包装管理提供参考。To provide the basis for Chongqing regional logistics planning and decision-making under the Belt and Road Initiative,to maximize the quality of regional cargo logistics planning and the efficiency of freight packing management,this paper combines and summarizes the application value of grey theory,regional logistics situations,the demand forecast and relevant documents of freight packaging management,using the basic principle of GM(1,1)model,carrying out the research of freight logistics demand forecast and packaging management.Taking Chongqing as an example,according to the historical data of freight volume in Chongqing,the author established a corresponding GM(1,1)model.Chongqing freight original data from 2010 to 2018 and MATLAB software were used to forecast the total demand and development trend of Chongqing’s freight logistics in 2019-2028.The prediction result shows that the freight volume of Chongqing in the next ten years will increase approximately in a positive proportion and a straight-line trend.Following the development law of freight logistics and freight packaging demand,the error between the predicted value and the actual value of the model is small,and the predicted value is around the actual value and its evolution trend fluctuates in a small range,indicating that the prediction accuracy is high and the applicability and feasibility of the model prediction are verified.This model is suitable for grasping the law of regional freight logistics demand and packaging management,and provides a decision basis for further strengthening freight packaging management.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 货运包装 区域物流 包装管理 需求预测 

分 类 号：F251.2[经济管理—国民经济]