基于结构方程模糊评估模型的水利工程项目施工阶段风险研究  

Research on risk of construction stage of hydraulic engineering project based on structural equation fuzzy evaluation model

作　　者：刘波 姜一天 张郑贤 金婷 姜新佩[2] LIU Bo;JIANG Yitian;ZHANG Zhengxian;JIN Ting;JIANG Xinpei(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056000,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056000,China;Power China Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited,Beijing 100038,China;School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056000 [2]河北工程大学土木工程学院,河北邯郸056000 [3]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100038 [4]武汉大学水利水电学院,湖北武汉430072 [5]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2020年第1期161-166,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：河北省科学技术研究与发展计划项目(15273609D);浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划暨新苗人才计划项目(2018R412039)。

摘　　要：针对水利工程建设项目的风险评估问题,考虑了指标间的相互影响的复杂性,采用结构方程模糊评估模型对水利工程项目风险进行了评定,并将模型应用到M水库工程施工阶段。结果表明:该工程施工阶段的风险评估等级为低等,该模型结果和层次分析模糊综合评价结果一致,并与实际工程相符。此外,该模型易于确定指标权重,且计算的风险层指标间的协方差作用系数,可用于量化指标间的相互影响程度,从而提高水利工程项目管理水平。综上可知将结构方程模糊评估模型应用于水利工程项目施工阶段风险研究具有一定潜力,值得进一步研究。To solve the risk assessment problems of hydraulic engineering project construction,by considering the complexity of the interaction between indicators,the structural equation fuzzy evaluation model was used to evaluate the risks of hydraulic engineering projects,which was then applied to the construction stage of M reservoir project.It can be concluded that the level of risk assessment in the construction stage of the project was low,and the results of the model were consistent with those of the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,which was consistent with the level of risk of actual project.In addition,it is easy to determine the weight of indicators by using this model,and the covariance interaction coefficient between risk level indicators can be used to quantify the degree of interaction between indicators,thus improving the management level of hydraulic engineering projects.In conclusion,the application of structural equation fuzzy evaluation model to the risk study of hydraulic engineering project construction stage has certain potential,which is worth for further studies.

关 键 词：施工阶段风险评估 结构方程 模糊评估 权重 水利工程 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]