Catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model for water and mud inrush and its application in karst tunnels  

基于突变理论的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估模型及其应用研究

作　　者：ZHU Jian-qun LI Tian-zheng 朱建群;李天正(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213002,China;School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou 213002,China [2]School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China

出　　处：《Journal of Central South University》2020年第5期1587-1598,共12页中南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：Project(51378510)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China。

摘　　要：This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the dangerousness of this geological disaster.The losses that are caused by water and mud inrush are taken into consideration to account for its harmfulness.Then a risk evaluation model based on the dangerousness-harmfulness evaluation indicator system is constructed,which is more convincing in comparison with the traditional methods.The catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the risk level of water and mud inrush and it has great advantage in handling problems involving discontinuous catastrophe processes.To validate the proposed approach,the Qiyueshan tunnel of Yichang-Wanzhou Railway is taken as an example in which four target segments are evaluated using the risk evaluation model.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the excavation data,which shows that the risk levels predicted by the proposed approach are in good agreements with that observed in engineering.In conclusion,the catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model is an efficient and effective approach for water and mud inrush in karst tunnels.本文提出了一种岩溶地区隧道开挖过程中突水突泥风险评估模型。首先,研究了影响岩溶隧道突水突泥可能性的因素,进而确定了该地质灾害的危险性。同时,考虑到突水突泥灾害造成的经济损失,从而确定其危害性。在此基础上,建立了基于危险-危害程度评价指标体系的风险评价模型,与传统方法相比,所提出的模型具有更强的说服力。本文将突变理论用于评估突水突泥风险等级,该方法在解决不连续突变问题方面具有巨大优势。为了验证该方法的有效性,以宜万铁路的齐岳山隧道为例,通过风险评估模型对四个目标路段进行了评估。最后,将评估结果与开挖数据进行比较,结果表明,本文方法所预测的风险水平与工程中所观察到的情况具有良好的一致性。综上,基于突变理论的评估模型是一种有效的岩溶隧道突水突泥风险评估方法。

关 键 词：risk evaluation model water and mud inrush catastrophe theory karst area TUNNELING 

分 类 号：U456.3[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]