河南省分类强对流环境物理条件特征分析  

Analysis on the Characteristics of Environmental and Physical Conditions for the Classified Severe Convections in Henan Province

作　　者：王迪 牛淑贞[1,2] 曾明剑 张一平[2] WANG Di;NIU Shuzhen;ZENG Mingjian;ZHANG Yiping(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003;Henan Meteorological Observatory,Zhengzhou 450003;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanjing 210009;Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology,CMA,Nanjing 210009)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局•河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [3]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210009 [4]中国气象局交通气象重点开发实验室,南京210009

出　　处：《气象》2020年第5期618-628,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：河南省气象局重点项目(KZ201702)、河南省科技攻关项目(162102310056);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAY13Y2019-068)共同资助。

摘　　要：以冰雹、雷暴大风、短时强降水三类划分河南省2006-2015年暖季国家自动气象站的强对流个例,考虑到月际变化和气候背景差异对强对流发生环境的影响,采用ECMWF再分析资料计算表征大气动力、热力及水汽条件等特性的物理参数及其15 d滑动平均值,对比分析各月三类天气环境物理条件特征,并提炼分类强对流的关键物理参数。结果表明:河南省暖季短时强降水发生频率最高,冰雹最少,各类均主要出现在14-20时。三类强对流发生临近时刻大多数物理参数的月际差异非常明显,应用时有必要分月讨论。参数偏离滑动气候态的异常特征对于分类强对流同样有价值,且不同物理条件偏差特征差异明显。平均来说,短时强降水与冰雹的环境条件各月差异显著,主要体现在:整层可降水量、地面露点温度和K指数较大,0℃和-20℃层高度较高,低层垂直风切变较大,低层辐合和正涡旋特征较强,而850与500 hPa温差和对流有效位能较小。冰雹与雷暴大风的物理参数特征大多非常相似,不过冰雹的整层可降水量和地面露点温度更小、0℃和-20℃层高度更低、高层辐合和正涡旋特征更强,尤其在7月和8月。The historical severe convections from 2006 to 2015 in the warm season were classified into three types,namely hail,thunderstorm gale and short-term heavy rain,occurring at the national meteorological automatic stations in Henan Province.The physical parameters and their 15 d moving average values are calculated based on ECMWF reanalysis data,indicating the environmental characteristics such as vapor,thermal and dynamical conditions,and then the monthly characteristics are comparatively analyzed with the key parameters to classify convections selected,considering the influence of monthly change and the variety of climate background.The results showed that the frequency of short-time severe precipitation is the highest while that of hail is the lowest.All kinds of severe precipitation mainly occur in the afternoon(14:00 BT-20:00 BT).The inter-monthly variation of parameters is so prominent that the different parameter thresholds are advisable in the potential forecast monthly.The parameter deviations from the moving climate mean are also valuable for the classification and obviously vary in the different environmental conditions.The monthly characteristics of most parameters for the short-time severe precipitation are significantly distinct from the hail,such as the larger indices of precipitable water,ground dew point temperature,K index,0℃ and -20℃ level heights,stronger vertical wind shear,convergence and positive vorticity in the lower level,and the less temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa and CAPE.Most parameters for hail are similar to those of thunderstorm gale with less precipitable water and ground dew point temperature,lower 0℃ and -20℃ level heights,and stronger convergence and positive vorticity in the upper level,especially in July and August.

关 键 词：分类强对流 环境参数 潜势预报 ECMWF再分析资料 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458