基于贝叶斯修正IFAHP和灰色模糊综合评判的绝缘子污秽评估  

Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Contamination State for Insulators Based on IFAHP with Bayesian Modified Method

作　　者：黄翔 王凌云[1] 王泉 邱立[1] 李国平 董宾 HUANG Xiang;WANG Ling-yun;WANG Quan;QIU Li;LI Guo-ping;DONG Bin(College of Electrical Engineering&New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co.Ltd,Zigui Power Supply Company,Zigui 443600,China;State Grid Jiangxi Electric Power Co.Ltd,Xinyu Power Supply Company,Xinyu 338025,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,宜昌443002 [2]国网湖北省电力有限公司秭归县供电公司,秭归443600 [3]国网江西省电力有限公司新余供电公司,新余338025

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2020年第13期5135-5141,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51877122)。

摘　　要：绝缘子状态评估中指标信息兼具模糊、随机和灰色性特点。针对当前评估方法较少考虑到参量因素灰色性的问题,基于贝叶斯修正IFAHP法并结合灰色模糊理论和灰云模型提出一种绝缘子污秽状态的灰色模糊综合评判模型。该模型首次引入IFAHP和直觉模糊熵理论以更为科学合理地确定评判因素权重集,并基于贝叶斯公式建立主观权重的优化模型以实现指标的二阶段赋权;同时,利用灰云模型求得评判指标对应各状态等级的关联度并作为评判矩阵模部,再以灰部兼顾评判信息的灰性,进而对建立的评判矩阵综合处理。实例对比表明,贝叶斯修正IFAHP法确定的权重集更为合理适用,基于灰色模糊评判的结果也更贴近实际情况。The index information in insulator condition evaluation is fuzziness,randomness,and greyness.The current evaluation methods seldom consider the greyness of index information,thus a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of contamination state for insulators was proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(IFAHP)with Bayesian modified method by combining grey fuzzy theory and grey cloud model.In the proposed method,IFAHP method and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory were introduced for the first time to determine the weight set of evaluation factors more scientifically and suitably,and optimization model of subjective weight was established using the Bayes formula to realize two-stage weighting of index.Moreover,the grey cloud model was used to obtain the correlation degree of each state level of indexes,which acted as the module part of the judgment matrix.In addition,the grey part of matrix was used to consider the grey characteristic of evaluation information,and then the established evaluation matrix was comprehensively processed.Finally,the analysis and comparison of real cases show that the weight set determined by IFAHP with Bayesian modified method was more reasonable and applicable,and the result based on grey fuzzy evaluation was closer to the actual situation.

关 键 词：绝缘子 污秽状态 灰色模糊综合评判 IFAHP 灰云模型 贝叶斯公式 

分 类 号：TM216[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]