基于统计学的地震显著平静阈值估计  

A method based on statistics for estimating the threshold of significant seismic quiescence and application case

作　　者：姜祥华 陈佳维[2] 解孟雨 孟令媛[1] JIANG Xianghua;CHEN Jiawei;XIE Mengyu;MENG Lingyuan(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;The Institute of Crustal Dynamics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2020年第2期23-30,共8页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：中国地震台网中心青年科技基金(项目编号:QNJJ201808);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(项目编号:ZDJ2018-04)。

摘　　要：提出具有统计学意义的地震显著平静阈值估算方法,用于中国大陆及川滇、新疆和华北地区中强震活动分析,在不同区域得到不同起始震级的显著平静阈值范围。结果显示:(1)中国大陆7级、6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为3.9-6.2年、7.9-9.6个月和62-70天;(2)川滇地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.1-2.9年和7.0-8.5个月;(3)新疆地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.6-4.0年和8.5-10.5个月;(4)华北地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为11.7-23.4年和5.2-7.7年。We propose a method based on statistics for estimating the threshold of significant seismic quiescence. The method is applied to the Chinese Mainland, Sichuan and Yunnan area, Xinjiang area, and North China. And thresholds of significant seismic quiescence are obtained in these areas with different initial magnitudes.(1) The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with MS≥ 7.0, 6.0, and 5.0 are 3.9-6.2 years, 7.9-9.6 months, and 62-70 days, respectively, in the Chinese Mainland.(2) The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with MS≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 2.1-2.9 years and 210-255 days, respectively, in Sichuan and Yunnan area.(3) The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with MS≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 2.6-4.0 years and 255-318 days, respectively, in Xinjiang area.(4) The thresholds of significant seismic quiescence with MS≥ 6.0 and 5.0 are 11.7-23.4 years and 5.2-7.7 years, respectively, in North China.

关 键 词：地震平静 显著性分析 统计地震学 地震活动性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]