收入不平等、政府支出与实际汇率——基于跨国面板数据的研究  

Income Inequality, Government Expenditure, and Real Exchange Rate: A Study Based on Cross-Country Panel Data

作　　者：梅冬州[1] 吴梦涛 钱铁峰 谭松涛[3] MEI Dongzhou;WU Mengtao;QIAN Tiefeng;TAN Songtao(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University;School of Finance,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,北京102206 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [3]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第4期31-47,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773149);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71850005);北京市社会科学基金项目(17LJB005);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金;中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划资助项目的资助

摘　　要：已有较多研究讨论了实际汇率的决定因素,而从收入不平等角度出发的研究并不多。本文搜集和整理了172个国家和地区1970年到2016年的跨国面板数据,分析了收入不平等对一国实际汇率的影响,并引入政府支出探究了收入分配对非贸易品部门和实际汇率的影响机制。实证检验结果表明,对于非OECD国家,收入不平等和实际汇率显著负相关,即收入越不平等,实际汇率高估越严重,而在OECD国家中这一现象并不存在。进一步的影响机制分析发现,对于非OECD国家,一国收入不平等加剧会导致该国政府支出增多,从而扩大了非贸易品部门规模,导致非贸易品的相对价格上升,使得实际汇率高估。The stability of the real exchange rate is important for economic development. It affects trade volume and investment in addition to the stability of the country’s financial and currency markets. The impact of income inequality on the real exchange rate, however, has been underexplored in the literature. To study this, we collect and combine different data sets to form a cross-country panel data covering 172 economies from 1970 to 2016. Armed with this data set, we test whether income inequality impacts the real exchange rate. We find that income inequality negatively covaries with the real exchange rate within non-OECD countries but does not significantly relate to the real exchange rate within OECD countries. In other words, in non-OECD countries, the greater the income inequality, the more overvalued the real exchange rate. To verify the robustness of the results, we perform three tests, and we find that the results are still valid. First, we replace the key variables with indicators from different databases. For example, we use the Gini coefficients in the WDI database and the WIID(World Income Inequality Database) to replace the original income inequality indicators(in the SWIID). The real exchange rate indicator used in the benchmark regression is calculated by the price level measured based on actual output in PWT8.2. We also use indicators calculated using the other two price indices(based on domestic absorption and actual consumption respectively) and the real effective exchange rate published by the WDI and IMF. Second, we perform the regressions based on samples in different periods and varying degrees of income inequality, and obtain results consistent with the main analysis. Third, the real exchange rate also has some impact on income distribution, so the above regressions may have an endogeneity problem. In the absence of suitable instrumental variables, we use the difference GMM and system GMM to re-estimate.We then explore the channels through which income inequality affects the real exchange ra

关 键 词：收入不平等 实际汇率高估 政府支出 非贸易品部门 

分 类 号：F113.8[经济管理—国际贸易] F811.4[经济管理—世界经济] F831.6