基于改进突变级数法的河北省养老地产开发适宜性评价与障碍因子诊断  

Suitability of pension real estate development and obstacle indicators diagnosis in Hebei Province based on improved catastrophe progression

作　　者：李素红[1,2] 方洁 尹志军[1] 苗静谦 LI Suhong;FANG Jie;YIN Zhijun;MIAO Jingqian(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,china;Department of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2020年第2期378-387,共10页World Regional Studies

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金“养老院项目PFI模式研究——风险分担与收益分配”(HB17GL033)。

摘　　要：目前我国已存在的养老地产项目多数处于亏损状态,运营存在众多问题。基于现有问题,从养老地产的开发选址角度出发,对城市在养老地产开发初期的适宜性进行评估。建立包括人口因子、生活舒适度、居民消费能力、房地产市场成熟度和服务业发展程度五个维度的养老地产开发适宜性评价指标体系,并收集了2012-2016年河北省11个地级市的指标数据,运用基于组合赋权法的改进突变级数模型对11个城市的养老地产开发适宜性进行了评价。同时利用改进的障碍因子诊断模型对影响各城市养老地产开发适宜性的主要障碍因子进行诊断。通过分析得出主要结论:河北省养老地产开发适宜水平在2012年到2016年间整体有所提升,但提升幅度不大;根据评价结果,将11个城市划分为较高水平的养老地产重点发展城市、中间水平的养老地产潜力发展城市和较低水平的发展欠佳城市三类;三类城市养老地产开发适宜性的变化趋势不同,影响各城市养老地产开发适宜性水平的障碍因素表现出明显的差异。最后针对研究结果,提出提升河北省城市养老地产开发适宜性水平的对策建议。Most of the existing projects of pension real estate in China are in the state of loss,and there are many problems in operation. Based on these existing problems, from the perspective of site selection of pension real estate, this paper evaluated the development suitability of the pension real estate in the initial stage of development. This paper established the suitability evaluation indicator system of urban pension real estate development that included the five aspects of population factor, the comfort index of life, the degree of residents’ consumption level, the maturity of real estate market and the degree of development of service industry. The indicator data of 11 cities in the Hebei province from 2012 to 2016 were collected to evaluate the suitability of pension real estate development by using improved catastrophe progression model which based on combination weighting. At the same time, the improved obstacle factor diagnosis model was used to diagnose the main obstacle factors that affect the suitability of pension real estate development in various cities. Through the analysis, the main conclusions are drawn: the level of suitability of pension real estate development in the Hebei province improved in the whole from2012 to 2016, but the increase was not significant;according to the results of the evaluation, 11 cities can be divided into three categories: the prioritized developmental cities, the potential cities and the unsuitable cities. The changing trend of the suitability of the three categories of urban pension real estate development is different, and the obstacle factors affecting the level of suitability of the development of pension real estate in each city show obvious differences. Finally, according to the research results, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the level of suitability of pension real estate development in the Hebei province.

关 键 词：养老地产 适宜性评价 改进突变级数法 障碍因子模型 河北省 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F224