“2016太湖大洪水”年景的雨情预测模拟  

Rain forecast and simulation of "2016 Taihu Lake flood"

作　　者：秦建国[1] 朱龙喜 盛龙寿 姚华[1] 胡刚 QIN Jianguo;ZHU Longxi;SHENG Longshou;YAO Hua;HU Gang(Wuxi Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Jiangsu Province,Wuxi 214031,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局,江苏无锡214031

出　　处：《江苏水利》2020年第5期1-7,共7页Jiangsu Water Resources

摘　　要：以分段法和细部特征法为基础,通过研究我国南方地区特大干旱事件对太湖流域气候周期性变化的影响,第一次实现了无锡站年际降雨序列旱涝趋势预测的仿真模拟,并且选择历史演变法完成了无锡站2016年度双月序列的雨情预测模拟及后期对比分析工作。研究表明,1978年和2013年我国南方地区出现了2次特大干旱事件,均为太湖地区气候变化的特征转折点;对太湖地区来说,强厄尔尼诺现象出现的第三年和第二年一样,都是严重洪涝灾害的高发期。Based on the segmentation method and detailed feature method,by studying the impact of the severe drought events in the southern region of China on the cyclical climate change of Taihu Lake Basin,realized the simulation of the drought and flood trend forecast of the annual rainfall sequence of Wuxi Station for the first time,and selected the historical evolution method to complete the simulation of the rainfall forecast of the 2016 bimonthly sequence of Wuxi Station and the later comparative analysis. The results showed that two major droughts occurred in the southern China in 1978 and 2013,which were the turning point of climate change in Taihu Lake area. For the Taihu Lake area,the third year of strong El Nino was the same as the second year,which was the high incidence period of serious flood disaster.

关 键 词：非典型周期 厄尔尼诺 汛期 分段法 细部特征法 历史演变法 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]