城乡收入增长、养老金与生育水平--基于扩展OLG模型的实证检验  

Urban and Rural Income Growth,Public Pension and Fertility: An Empirical Analysis Based on Generalized OLG Model

作　　者：柳如眉 柳清瑞[2] LIU Ru-mei;LIU Qing-rui(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China;Institute of Population Research,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]辽宁大学人口研究所,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《人口与发展》2020年第3期27-37,共11页Population and Development

基　　金：辽宁省社科基金青年项目:基于夏普比率的个人账户投资组合及收益率研究(L19CJL003);辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”项目(XLYC1804013);辽宁省教育厅重点攻关项目:基于AI的养老金制度参数协同调整及政策效应研究(LZD201908);辽宁省社科基金规划项目:辽宁省养老基金多元化投资组合策略研究(L18BGL029)。

摘　　要：在一般均衡的封闭世代交叠经济中,家庭生育水平是由社会经济因素决定的内生函数,城乡收入和社会福利是影响家庭生育水平的重要变量。构建家庭生育的扩展OLG模型,根据中国家庭生命周期预期效用最大化,推导出由工资增长率、养老金替代率、缴费率等相关变量决定的家庭生育水平(生育孩子的数量)。在此基础上,利用2005-2017年时间序列数据进行多元回归分析,对理论模型进行了实证检验。实证结果表明:城乡收入增长与生育率正相关,收入增长对城镇家庭生育水平产生显著的正效应,而对农村家庭则产生负效应;养老金替代率与生育率正相关,而缴费率或平均税率与生育率负相关;育儿成本对城乡生育水平产生显著的负效应,而儿童津贴则产生正效应。在理论与实证分析基础上,从实现人口稳态均衡与可持续发展的政策目标出发,对中国生育政策调整及其相关社会福利政策选择进行了讨论。In a general equilibrium OLG closed economy,the household fertility model is an endogenous function determined by some socio-economic variables,in which the urban and rural income and social welfare variables have an important impact on household fertility.This paper constructs a generalized OLG model of household fertility.According to the expected utility maximization of household in the life cycle,the household fertility(the number of childbearing)is derived,which is determined by the related variables such as wage growth rate,pension replacement rate and contribution rate.Based on the theoretical model,the household fertility model and main inferences was tested by multiple regression analysis using time series data from 2005 to 2017. The empirical results show as follows: the urban and rural income growth is positively correlated with fertility,and the income growth has a significant positive effect on the fertility rate of urban households,while it may have a negative effect on rural households;the pension replacement rate is positively correlated with TFR,while the contribution rate or average tax rate is negatively correlated with TFR;the cost of raising children has significant negative impact on the number of childbearing,while the child-rearing allowance by the government has positive impact on the number of childbearing. On the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper discusses the adjustment of population policy and the choice of relevant socio-economic policies for achieving steady equilibrium and sustainable development of population in China.

关 键 词：家庭生育模型 总和生育率 工资增长率 养老金替代率 缴费率 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]