长期护理保险的保障范围和护理时长--基于社会保险模式和商业保险模式的比较  

The Coverage and Nursing Time of Long-term Care Insurance

作　　者：陆蒙华 吕明阳 王小明[2] LU Meng-hua;L Ming-yang;WANG Xiao-ming(Institute of Population Research,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute of Finance and Economy,Shanghai Finance and Economy University,Shanghai 200083,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200083

出　　处：《人口与发展》2020年第3期38-50,共13页Population and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“整体性治理:应对老龄社会的公共管理与公共政策重构研究”(71490735)。

摘　　要：利用2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,比较了社会保险模式和商业保险模式下的覆盖范围和护理时长;利用logistic模型,从个体特征、家庭特征和区位特征三个维度分析了是否符合参保条件的影响因素;利用OLS方法探讨了护理时长在年龄、性别和户籍上的差异;利用门槛模型得出了护理时长在年龄上的突变点;利用倾向得分匹配的方法解决了样本选择偏误带来的内生性,对性别和户籍进行了稳健性检验;最后对失能评估体系进行了讨论。研究的政策含义是:我国应建立能够满足失能群体照护需求的"社会保险+商业保险"双模式,合理确定失能评估体系,同时兼顾护理服务的可得性和基金运行的可持续性。Drawing the data from the CHARLS,this paper uses two different patterns to explores the disability rates and nursing demands,then using logistic model to analyze the influencing factors from three dimensions of individual characteristics,family characteristics and location characteristics,using OLS method to explore the difference of nursing time in age,gender and hukou,using threshold model to get the mutation point of nursing time in age,using propensity score matching method to solve the sample selection error for robustness;finally,disability assessment system was discussed.The policy implication of the study is that,the state should establish a dual model of "social insurance+commercial insurance"that can meet the needs of disabled groups,reasonably determine the disability assessment system,and take into account the availability of nursing services and the sustainability of fund operation.

关 键 词：长期护理保险 保障范围 护理时长 门槛模型 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]