新冠肺炎疫情冲击对吉林省经济周期的影响机制研究  

Study on the Mechanism of Covid-19 Epidemic on Economic Cycle in Jilin Province

作　　者：林长杰[1] 刘晓鑫[1] 叶骏骅 金博 LIN Changjie;LIU Xiaoxin;YE Junhua;JIN Bo

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行长春中心支行,吉林长春130051

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2020年第4期1-6,共6页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：本文通过HP滤波分析方法对1992-2019年吉林省经济增长趋势进行周期波动测度,结果表明2013年开始全省经济增速呈现出明显下降趋势,重点领域多重矛盾集中叠加,且周期波动幅度增大,波动频率所有下降。受新冠肺炎疫情影响,经济下行压力进一步增大,形势更趋复杂。鉴于上一次在我国达到如此严重程度的疫情还属2003年的非典(SARS),因此,本文基于对非典疫情时期吉林省经济表现的回顾和灰色预测模型,判断和量化本次疫情对全省经济的影响,并提出相关政策建议,以期对宏观经济逆周期调节形成理论支撑。In this paper,the periodic fluctuation of economic growth trend of Jilin province from 1992 to 2019 was measured by HP filter analysis method.The results showed that since 2013,the economic growth rate of Jilin province has shown a significant downward trend.Multiple contradictions in key areas are concentrated and overlapping.The Covid-19 outbreak has added to the downward pressure on the economy and complicated the situation.Since the last time in our country so severity of the disease is severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS)in 2003(SARS),therefore,in this paper,based on the review of the SARS epidemic period in Jilin province economic performance and the grey forecasting model,determine and quantify the impact of the outbreak of the provincial economy,and puts forward relevant policy Suggestions,in order to macroeconomic countercyclical regulation form theory support.

关 键 词：经济周期 疫情冲击 HP滤波 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]