1961-2019年吉林省暖冬气候特征分析  

An Analysis on Warm Winter Characteristics in Jilin Province During 1961-2019

作　　者：刘宁 于秀晶[1] 黄晶 LIU Ning;YU Xiu-jing;HUANG Jing(Jilin Climate Center,Changchun 130062,China;Meteorological Observation Technology Support Center of Anhui,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省气候中心,长春130062 [2]安徽省大气探测技术保障中心,合肥230031

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2020年第14期5476-5482,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201710)。

摘　　要：选取1961-2019年吉林省46个气象观测站冬季逐日气温资料(1960年12月至2019年2月),分析全省冬季气温变化特点,并依据国家标准《暖冬等级》中单站暖冬、区域暖冬的划分标准,提取暖冬指数时间序列并对其进行分析。结果表明:近59年来吉林省冬季平均气温升温速率为0.41℃/10 a,增温趋势明显,其中平均最低气温和2月气温的升高是冬季变暖的主要因素,各站点冬季平均气温均呈上升趋势,变化率为0.05~0.77℃/10 a;单站暖冬发生5~59次,呈现西南部和东南部大、北部小的空间分布。区域暖冬指数呈升高趋势,速率为4.3%/10 a,表明达到暖冬标准的站点呈增多趋势;59年间共出现25个区域暖冬,其中1990-2019年共出现17个,占总数的近70%。25个暖冬年中出现18个强暖冬年,2007年是近59年来暖冬强度及范围最大的一年。The daily temperature data of 46 meteorological observation stations in Jilin Province during 1961 to 2019(from December to February)was selected.Then the variations of winter temperature in Jilin Province were analyzed.According to the warm winter grade national standard,the grade of single station and regional warm winter were determined,the warm winter index was extracted and analyzed with the basis of the division method for warm winter.The results show that in the past 59 years,the mean temperature in winter in Jilin Province has increased at a rate of 0.41℃/10 a,and the warming trend is obvious,especially the ascents of minimum temperature and temperature in February contribute the most to winter warming.The mean temperature in winter is increasing at each site,and the rate of variation is 0.05~0.77℃/10 a.The single station warm winter has occurred from 5 to 59 times,the high value areas are located in the southwest and southeast,the low value areas are located in the north.The regional warm winter index shows an increasing trend with a rate of 4.3%/10 a,and the number of sites that in accordance with the warm winter standard has a rising trend.During 1961 to 2019,25 warm winters has occurred.During 1990 to 2019,there are 17 warm winters,accounting nearly 70%of the total.There are 18 strong warm winter years of 25 warm winter years,and 2007 is the most extensive and strongest regional warm winter in the past 59 years.

关 键 词：吉林省 气温 暖冬 气候变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]