试用最大熵模型分析蚊密度和气温、降水的关系  

MaxEnt test for mosquito density,temperature and precipitation

作　　者：蒋峥[1] 昝宇 张学贤 杜俊龙 何建邯[1] 廖骏[1] JIANG Zheng;ZAN Yu;ZHANG Xuexian;DU Junlong;HE Jianhan;LIAO Jun(Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Sichuan610041,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]成都市疾病预防控制中心,四川610041 [2]成都市双流区疾病预防控制中心 [3]新津县疾病预防控制中心 [4]金堂县疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2020年第6期592-594,共3页Journal of Medical Pest Control

摘　　要：目的试用最大熵生态位模型测试2014-2018年成都市蚊密度和同期气温、相对湿度和降水量的关系,预期影响蚊密度差异的主要气候因素。方法将蚊密度排名前四的监测点作为样本,建立生态位模型,使用ROC曲线下面积验证模型精度,变量刀切法评价气候因子的贡献。结果最热月最高温度和降水变异系数对模型的贡献率最高,分别为77.15%和20.78%。结论月平均最高温度和降水变异系数是影响蚊密度的主要因素。Objective To test the relationship between mosquito density and temperature,relative humidity and precipitation with MaxEnt from 2014 to 2018,so as to anticipate the main climatic factors influencing mosquito density difference.Methods The top 4 monitor sites of mosquito density were determined as samples to establish MaxEnt modeling,the validity of model was proved by fetching the area under the ROC curve and then jackknife method was applied to evaluate the contribution of climatic factors.Results The contribution rate of the highest temperature and precipitation variation coefficient to the model was the highest,with the contribution rate of 77.15% and 20.78%,respectively.Conclusion The monthly average maximum temperature and the precipitation variation coefficient were the main factors affecting mosquito density.

关 键 词：蚊密度 最大熵模型 气温 气湿 降水量 

分 类 号：R184.31[医药卫生—流行病学]