基于证据理论的弹上设备可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Missile Equipment Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：贺志远 胡文林 赵新超 HE Zhiyuan;HU Wenlin;ZHAO Xinchao(Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001;No.91873 Troops of PLA,Huludao 125200)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学,烟台264001 [2]中国人民解放军91873部队,葫芦岛125200

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2020年第4期114-118,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：针对传统证据理论中存在的证据冲突以及证据相关等问题,论文提出一种改进的证据理论评估方法,对弹上设备的多性能退化问题进行可靠性评估。首先,建立了基于Wiener过程的性能退化模型。其次,提出了一种改进的证据理论模型,该模型基于Copula函数对传统的合成规则进行改进。实例分析表明:该方法对于退化过程具有多个性能特征且互相相关的可靠性评估问题有很好的适用性,并且计算效率较高。To solve the problems of evidence conflict and evidence correlation in traditional evidence theory,this paper pro⁃poses an improved evidence theory evaluation method to evaluate the reliability of multi-performance degradation of the equipment on the missile.Firstly,a performance degradation model based on Wiener process is established.Secondly,an improved evidence theory model is proposed,which is based on the Copula function to improve the traditional synthesis rules.The example analysis shows that the method has good applicability to the reliability evaluation problem with multiple performance characteristics with cor⁃relation,and the calculation efficiency is high.

关 键 词：证据理论 多性能退化 COPULA函数 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TJ765[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]