特朗普政府对朝政策趋向:新一轮“战略忍耐”?  

Trump’s Policy Trend towards the DPRK:A New Round of“Strategic Patience”?

作　　者：林利民[1] 彭力 Lin Limin;Peng Li

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《美国研究》2020年第3期52-61,6,共11页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

基　　金：国际关系学院“国际安全治理与新型国际关系”课题阶段性成果,项目号(3262016T01)。

摘　　要：特朗普上任三年多来,对朝政策先后经历了以"极限施压"为基调的第一年、以"峰会外交"为基调的第二年,目前开始向新一轮"战略忍耐"转轨。相对于奥巴马对朝"战略忍耐",特朗普新一轮对朝"战略忍耐"既有一定的继承性,也有不少新变化。美新一轮"战略忍耐"将不再奠基于"朝鲜崩溃论",美动用武力迫朝弃核的"窗口期"也基本关闭。特朗普奉行对朝新一轮"战略忍耐"有可能打开国际社会"默认"朝鲜实际拥核国身份的窗口,一定程度上有助于缓和朝鲜半岛紧张局势;也可能诱导日、韩采取核"跟进"政策,致使东北亚出现新一波核扩散浪潮。如果是前一种态势,则朝鲜半岛及东北亚有望进入一个相对稳定时期;如果是后一种态势,则朝鲜半岛、东北亚及中国周边环境有可能更加动荡、复杂,甚至进入一个新的严峻时期。中国应认清特朗普政府对朝"新战略忍耐"的政策本质与特点以及其中所包含的复杂挑战与机遇,力推重启"六方会谈",力促朝核问题相关方达成以"双轨并进""双暂停"及以朝鲜"冻核"换取美韩放松对朝制裁等为内容的国际妥协,为实现朝鲜半岛及东北亚的和平与稳定创造条件,尤其要谨防东北亚出现新一波核扩散浪潮。Three years into Donald Trump’s term in office,his policy toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korean(DPRK)has shifted from"maximum pressure"in the first year to"summit diplomacy"in the second year.Now it is turning into a new round of"strategic patience,"which is a continuum of Obama’s"strategic patience"towards the DPRK,but with changes.The DPRK already has the ability to directly attack the U.S.with nuclear weapons,and its economic and political aspects have stabilized.At the same time,upholding"America First"and"Economy First"as its ruling philosophy and governance objectives,the Trump administration takes a negative stand on obligations such as leading global counter-proliferation actions and playing the"World Police."As a result,the new round of"strategic patience"of the United States will no longer be based on the"collapse of DPRK"theory,and the"window period"in which the United States uses force to make the DPRK abandon its nuclear power is also basically closed.Trump’s new round of"strategic patience"with the DPRK might open up the possibility of the international community tacitly agreeing that the DPRK is a nuclear power.To a certain extent,this might help ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula,but it might also induce Japan and South Korea to"catch up,"leading to a new wave of nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia.

关 键 词：美国军事与外交 美朝关系 特朗普 对朝政策 新战略忍耐 六方会谈 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D831.2[政治法律—外交学] D815.2