西安呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与气象因素的关系  

Relationship between the Death Caused by Respiratory Disease and Meteorological Factors in Xi'an

作　　者：张楠 尚可政[2] 刘敏茹 刘继峰[3] 魏俊涛 Zhang Nan;Shang Kezheng;Liu Minru;Liu Jifeng;Wei Juntao(Xi'an Meteorological Bureau,Xi'an 710016,China;College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Xi'an Centers for Disease Control,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安市气象局,陕西西安710016 [2]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]西安市疾病预防控制中心,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2020年第3期61-65,83,共6页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：国家人口与健康科学数据共享服务平台项目(NCMI-GB01N-201906);西安市气象局科学技术研究项目(xqky2019-12)。

摘　　要：利用西安市2010—2014年呼吸系统疾病死亡人数和同期气象数据,通过spss17.0对气象因子与呼吸系统疾病逐日死亡人数进行相关分析,通过多元逐步回归方法建立气象因素对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的预测模型,并应用同期气象数据和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数检验预测模型。结果显示:西安地区呼吸系统疾病死亡人数冬春季明显多于夏秋季,且四季与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数有显著相关的气象因子不同;建立了春季、冬季的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数预报模型,经检验实测与预测人数平均相差分别为1.42人、0.56人,模型预测效果较好,可为预防呼吸系统疾病发生、发展,提高人群自我保健意识提供指导。By analyzing the number of death caused by respiratory diseases and the meteorological data of the same period in Xi'an City from 2010-2014 with spss17.0,the prediction model of the relationship between meteorological factors and death caused by respiratory diseases was established by multiple stepwise regression method and verified with the meteorological data and respiratory disease death of the same period.The results show that the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in winter and spring is significantly higher than that in summer and autumn,and the meteorological factors in different seasons have different degree of impact on deaths from respiratory diseases.The measured number and predicted number of death are different with average 1.42 and 0.56,which shows the satisfying prediction function.Therefore,it can provide guidance for preventing the occurence and development of respiratory diseases and improving awareness of self-care.

关 键 词：气象因素 呼吸系统疾病 死亡人数 预测模型 

分 类 号：R122.26[医药卫生—环境卫生学]