中国城市群经济韧性的测度与分析--基于经济韧性的shift-share分解  

Measurement and Analysis of Economic Resilience of China’s Urban Agglomerations Based on Shift-share Decomposition of Economic Resilience

作　　者：冯苑 聂长飞 张东[1] FENG Yuan;NIE Chang-fei;ZHANG Dong(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law 430073;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University 430072)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,430073 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2020年第5期60-72,共13页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“科技企业孵化器与创新创业的耦合协调及前景预测”(批准号:202010505)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文将经济韧性界定为应对冲击的抵抗力和冲击后的恢复力,以中国11个城市群159个城市为研究对象,测度了2008-2010年抵抗期和2010-2017年恢复期城市群经济韧性,并进一步运用shift-share分解方法探索了经济韧性的由来。结果显示:抵抗期和恢复期中国城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.515和0.026,均强于全国层面经济韧性;经济韧性可分解为产业结构和竞争力两个分量,且抵抗力和恢复力的大小均主要由竞争力决定;不同时期各产业发挥的作用有所不同,抵抗期经济韧性主要由二、三产业竞争力共同决定,而恢复期经济韧性的决定因素转变为第三产业竞争力为主、第二产业竞争力为辅。最后就如何增强中国经济韧性提出了相关的政策建议。This paper defines economic resilience as resistance to shocks and recovery after shocks.Taking 159 cities in 11 urban agglomerations in China as research objects,it measures the economic resilience of urban agglomerations during the resistance period from 2008 to 2010 and the recovery period from 2010 to 2017,and further explores the origin of economic resilience by using shift-share decomposition method.The results show that the economic resilience mean of China’s urban agglomerations during the resistance period and the recovery period is 0.515 and 0.026 respectively,which are both better than the national level.Economic resilience can be divided into two components:industrial structure and competitiveness,and the resistance and recovery are mainly determined by the competitiveness.Different industries play different roles in different periods.In the resistance period,economic resilience is mainly determined by the competitiveness of the secondary and the tertiary industries,while in the recovery period,economic resilience is mainly determined by the competitiveness of the tertiary industry and supplemented by the competitiveness of the secondary industry.Finally,the paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions on how to enhance China’s economic resilience.

关 键 词：城市群 经济韧性 shift-share分解 产业结构 竞争力 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]