全球变暖背景下珠江流域年日最高气温时空变化特征及影响分析  

Research on Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics and In fluencing Factors of Annual Maximum Daily Temperature in the Pearl River Basin under the Background of Global Warming

作　　者：秦蓓蕾[1] 吴孝情 朱天然 赖成光[3] QIN Beilei;WU Xiaoqing;ZHU Tianran;LAI Chengguang(Guangdong Hydropower Planning&Design Institute,Guangzhou 510635,China;South China Institute of Environment Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment Protection of PRC,Guangzhou 510535,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利电力勘测设计研究院,广东广州510635 [2]生态环境部华南环境科学研究院,广东广州510535 [3]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《人民珠江》2020年第6期1-6,61,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2017-02);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(2015ZX07202012)。

摘　　要：全球变暖和剧烈的人类活动引起全球气候非平稳性,极端高温等气候事件日益频繁,已严重威胁到人类健康和社会经济发展。分别利用1960-2012年珠江流域43个气象站的年日最高气温和74种逐月大气环流指数分析流域内极端高温时空变化特征并定量探讨其影响因素。结果表明:①珠江流域年日最高气温总体呈显著上升趋势,2002年前后发生显著突变,变化周期为4.8 a,且存在2.0~5.8 a的振荡周期;②流域极端高温呈现出从西部向东部递增的特点,其中东部地区呈明显上升趋势;③对珠江流域极端高温具有重要驱动作用的4个指数分别为太平洋区极涡强度指数、西太平洋副高强度指数、亚洲区极涡强度指数以及北半球极涡面积指数,而北半球副高北界位置指数和亚洲纬向环流指数的相对贡献率最小。Global warming and severe human activities have induced the non-stationary global climate,leading to increasingly frequent climate events like extreme high temperature,which has seriously threatened human health and socio-economic development.This paper analyzes the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme high temperature and quantitatively discusses its influencing factors by the annual maximum daily temperature of 43 meteorological stations in the Pearl River Basin(PRB)from 1960 to 2012 and 74 monthly atmospheric circulation indexes.The results show that:①The annual maximum daily temperature in the PRB showed a significant upward trend,with a significant abrupt change around 2002,a variation period of 4.8 year and oscillation period of 2.0~5.8 years;②The extreme high temperature of the basin showed an increasing trend from the west to the east,with significant increase in the east PRB;③Four atmospheric circulation indexes,i.e.,the Pacific polar vortex intensity index,the western Pacific subtropical high intensity index,the Asian polar vortex intensity index,and the northern hemisphere polar vortex area index had important driving effect on the extreme high temperature in PRB,while the Asian zonal circulation index and the northern hemisphere subtropical high northern boundary position index presented the lowest relative contribution rate.

关 键 词：极端高温 时空变化 大气环流指数 珠江流域 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]