金融去杠杆、地方政府融资平台与经济波动--基于PVAR模型分析  

Financial Deleveraging,Local Government Financing Platforms and Economic Fluctuations--Analysis based on PVAR model

作　　者：孔薇 扈文秀[1] 廖凯诚 Kong Wei;Hu Wenxiu;Liao Kaicheng(School of Economics and Management,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710054,China;School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,西安710054 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第7期123-127,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章选取2014-2018年间31个省份的省级面板数据为样本,通过PVAR模型实证检验了金融去杠杆、地方政府融资平台与经济波动两两变量之间的关系。研究发现:金融去杠杆和地方政府融资平台都对经济波动具有显著正向影响,并且金融去杠杆比地方政府融资平台对经济波动的影响大;金融去杠杆与地方政府融资平台呈负相关关系,即金融去杠杆规范了地方政府融资平台的债务规模,但影响程度较小;从子样本的实证结果来看,相较于中部、西部地区,东部地区金融去杠杆对经济波动的影响最大,并且在降低地方政府融资平台债务中取得了最显著的效果。This paper selects the provincial panel data of 31 provinces from 2014 to 2018 as samples,and empirically tests the relationship between the financial deleveraging,local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)and economic fluctuations through PVAR model.The results show that both financial deleveraging and LGFVs have a significant positive impact on economic fluctuations,and financial deleveraging has a greater impact on economic fluctuations than LGFVs;there is a negative correlation between financial deleveraging and LGFVs,that is,financial deleveraging standardizes the debt scale of LGFVs,but to a lesser extent;from the empirical results of the subsamples,compared with the central and western regions,financial deleveraging in the eastern region has the greatest impact on economic volatility,and has achieved the most significant effect in reducing the debt of LGFVs.

关 键 词：金融去杠杆 地方政府融资平台 经济波动 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]